If the days of teams selecting running backs within the first ten picks -- or even in the first round -- of the NFL Draft are truly gone, top prospects can blame New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman for this trend, according to Sports Illustrated writer Conor Orr.
"Saquon Barkley [being drafted No. 2 overall by the Giants in 2018] is probably going to be held up as the cautionary tale," Orr told The DA Show on Monday. "If you're Dave Gettleman, I understood why you did it, and maybe you get another 1,200 or 1,500-yard season out of him and it feels worthwhile. But, just look at the effort that is spent not only on that pick, but to rationalize the pick, and all the trade capital that went into getting other offensive linemen, through free agent money to get [veteran lineman] Nate Solder.
"You're probably going to go offensive line again in this draft, just to make that pick work and to make it function, when there's been running backs out there that have had better production than Saquon Barkley and will probably have better production than Saquon Barkley over this window. It's just the nature of the position. And I think that might be the last [top pick for a running back]. And look at [Cowboys running back] Ezekiel Elliot -- that contract is starting to look like a huge albatross for Dallas..."
The rationale behind Orr's argument is that more NFL teams are fully embracing analytics, grasping true position value, and realizing that mid-to-late round prospects can also offer sufficient-to-elite running back production, but at a significantly lower cost.
"I think it's interesting. The analytic model, its vise-grip on the NFL is tightening," Orr said. "And I think that GM's are expected by their owners now [to understand analytics], because analytics are something that is more universal and it's something that owners understand. And if that's the prevailing model, they're going to start questioning their GM, 'Why are we doing this? Why are we drafting this guy in the first round when we can get value in the third, fourth, or fifth round?' And running backs seem to be the ones that have sort of suffered the most...
"I mean, [Clemson running back] Travis Etienne, [Alabama's] Najee Harris, all these guys are tremendously talented. But I just don't see a pressing need in the first round for any of these teams where a running back emerges as the number one thing..."
According to Pro Football Focus' NFL Draft Big Board, there isn't a single running back prospect ranked within the first 32 spots. North Carolina's Javonte Williams happens to be the top player at the position (No. 53 overall), followed by Harris at No. 65 and Etienne at No. 66.
The entire NFL Draft conversation between Orr and DA can be accessed in the video and audio players above.
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