The 2021 NFL Draft, which begins next Thursday, April 29 in Cleveland, will feature at least five quarterbacks selected in the first round, and it's possible that a record four players at the position will be off the board within the first four picks.
But one former NFL quarterback and first-overall pick isn't sold on the entire top-tier group of passers. He believes there's only one prospect primed to succeed as a starter at the pro level.
"If we're talking about the first round, I think there's one quarterback [I'm taking], in [Clemson's] Trevor Lawrence," Carson Palmer told CBS Sports Radio's Tiki and Tierney show on Thursday. "I think everybody else is going to be a product of their environment. I think [Ohio State's] Justin Fields can be a great player, he's got to go to the right spot, and I think that would be San Francisco [at No. 3 overall] and Kyle Shanahan's system. I just don't know if he's got the game to take a team and put them on his shoulders.
"I think he's got to be in the right spot, as well as [Alabama's] Mac Jones, especially. I think [North Dakota State's] Trey Lance has got the highest ceiling, probably, but there's a lot of work that needs to be done before he's probably competing on the same level as Trevor Lawrence. But there's one quarterback in this draft, and he's probably going to Jacksonville."
Lawrence, who's been deemed a generational talent by football analysts and fans alike, is the top overall prospect on Pro Football Focus' NFL Draft Big Board. In 10 games last season, the 6-foot-6, 220-pound junior threw for 3,153 yards with 24 touchdowns and five interceptions, and he led Clemson to its sixth College Football Playoff appearance. Barring some unforeseen circumstance, Lawrence will be selected first overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Although the NFL Draft landscape has changed drastically since Palmer was selected first overall by the Cincinnati Bengals back in 2003, he does see similarities between his draft experience and Lawrence's.
"I knew where I was going, kind of like this year, with everybody automatically assuming that Trevor is going to Jacksonville," Palmer said. "And even when Trevor was playing in the College Football Playoffs, everybody was saying, 'Whoever has the No. 1 pick should take this guy.' So, I think this year is reminiscent of '03, where I kind of knew I was going to the Bengals from the time I started interviewing agents... I'd walk into the interview room with the agent and the first thing they're saying is, 'Here's what we're going to do to get you to Chicago, here's what we're going to do to get these guys in a trade up to draft you here.' So, that was the talk at the time.
"And again, I feel like I'm still hearing those things about Jacksonville. And in saying that, if I was Trevor Lawrence, I would be super excited about the possibility of playing for the Jaguars... You look at [head coach] Urban Meyer's track record... everywhere he goes, he seems to be the best in the business, as far as going and winning championships at Ohio State, going and winning a championship at Florida. Now he's in the NFL, and if you just look at history and data, he's had nothing but success wherever he's went. So, I think it's a really, really great situation for Trevor to be going into if he does end up going to Jacksonville."
According to Spotrac.com, the estimated total value of the first overall pick's contract is $34.7 million, and the estimated signing bonus is $22.6 million.
The entire NFL Draft conversation between Palmer and Tiki and Tierney can be accessed in the video and audio players above.
You can follow the Tiki and Tierney Show on Twitter @TikiAndTierney and Tom Hanslin @TomHanslin.