The nature of risky decision-making makes someone look like a genius when all goes according to plan, but foolish when it doesn't. Lions head coach Dan Campbell's knack for showing confidence in his players with risky play-calling gave them a unique swag and identity throughout the season, but it ultimately cost the franchise a chance to make its first-ever Super Bowl appearance.
Living and dying by the sword was a big reason why the Lions reached their first NFC title game since 1992 to begin with. They ranked second in the NFL this season in fourth-down attempts (40), and converted on 21 of them for a 52-percent success rate. This conversion rate gave Campbell justification to roll the dice on the road against the 49ers on Sunday, with everything on the line. Only he went with his alpha male emotions, doing an exceptionally poor job of picking times to gamble. The price? A huge collapse and 34-31 loss.
Twice in the second half, Campbell kept his offense on the field in situations where he could've settled for makeable field goal attempts. Both times, they failed to convert on fourth down passes. As a result, San Francisco snagged back momentum, and scored two touchdowns off of Detroit's mistakes.
First, the Lions had a chance to extend their lead to 27-10 and make it a three score game with six minutes remaining in the third quarter. Later on, Campbell could've tied things up at 27-27 with less than eight minutes left in the fourth. The devil on one of Campbell's shoulders drowned out the noise of the angel on the other, convincing him that the temptation of a knockout blow was too much to resist with a ticket to Las Vegas at stake.
While there was no guarantee of Lions kicker Michael Badgley making those field goal attempts, he was 37-of-48 in his career on field goals between 40-49 yards, and the chances of Detroit settling and taking much-needed points were strong. If Campbell's decisions had paid off, they would've scored two more touchdowns and upset the 49ers with ease. On the flip side, however, leaving points on the field in a game where Detroit had already scored three touchdowns and tried to tack on was stupid.
Detroit could've matched San Francisco's field goal to start the second half, and remained in command with a 17-point lead. Instead, the combination of surrendering quality field position and providing a confidence boost for the 49ers snowballed into a staggering 27 unanswered points. Of course, there were plenty more opportunities to stop the ball from rolling further downhill. Jahmyr Gibbs fumbled on the opening play of the Lions' second drive in the third quarter, and their defense didn't exactly step up. Everything that went wrong down the stretch can be traced back to Campbell’s greed for points (and of course, respect).
Perhaps he felt the Lions needed to prove that they could win handedly on the road against the conference's best squad. Perhaps emotions took over. There's still no need to take those risks in certain situations, as a win counts regardless of margin of victory. With a time and place for everything, Sunday was the perfect time for Campbell to deviate from his regular-season identity and make more conservative decisions. Being overaggressive in several key scenarios was playing with fire, and he got severely burned.
"I feel like going for it on fourth down will come back to bite you," 49ers star pass-rusher Nick Bosa explained to reporters after the game. The opponent rooted for that 'Macho Man' mode from Campbell every time he made a key decision and felt it offered Detroit a competitive advantage. While the 1-for-3 conversion rate on fourth down would look good in a baseball box score, the Lions' two failed attempts stuck out like defensive unsportsmanlike conduct penalties on third and long plays.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan didn’t exactly outcoach Campbell in every facet on Sunday, but he always played the percentages by kicking the field goal, as opposed to pushing for first downs. It says a lot, since 49ers kicker Jake Moody missed a makeable 48-yard field goal early in the first quarter.
Shanahan didn't coach as if he was scared to lose. Instead, his play-calling was wise because he acted with his head and not his heart. That's a coach who looked like he was running the show in his third straight NFC title game. As for Campbell, he looked like some overhyped gym teacher trying to teach physics -- enthusiastic, yet irrationally out of control.
This season could've easily been the Lions' time to finally graduate from the historical loser label and become a Super Bowl champ for the very first time. Once the dust settles, the season will still be remembered in a positive light, as the year Detroit became a true contender. Until then, their NFC title game collapse will be viewed as yet another big game that slipped right through a cursed franchise's fingertips.
While it was a collective loss, the main culprit for the Lions' abysmal collapse was none other than their revered leader in Campbell. As he hopes for a shot at redemption, perhaps he'll quickly realize that it's much better to die a hero.