The debate on whether Mac Jones should be selected within the top-five picks of this year's NFL Draft is far from over. But regardless of where the Alabama quarterback lands, the pick is going to shape the entire first round, according to CBS Sports NFL draft analyst Chris Trapasso.
"No one is quite too sure about what will happen with Mac Jones," Trapasso told Bill Reiter on the Reiter Than You show on Wednesday. "There are some people you talk to who say he's definitely going No. 3 overall to the 49ers. Some believe he can fall all the way to No. 15 to the Patriots. So, that is the one x-factor in this entire first round, the entire top-10. Where Mac Jones ultimately goes will be the domino effect for the rest of the quarterbacks."
Jones, who led the Crimson Tide to a national championship this past January, is currently ranked the 14th-best prospect on Pro Football Focus' NFL Draft Big Board and the fifth quarterback overall. In 13 games last season, the 6-foot-3, 214-pound junior threw for 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns, just four interceptions, and a completion percentage of 77.4.
Despite his overall ranking in this year's class, there's a legitimate chance Jones is taken at No. 3 by San Francisco. The consensus around the league is that the team is rather intrigued by Jones' skillset, and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch attended Jones' pro day workout in Tuscaloosa just four days after shaking up the draft order via a trade with the Miami Dolphins in late March.
Based on this information, it wouldn't be surprising to see the 49ers pounce on Jones. But of the top-tier quarterbacks available, Trapasso believes Jones is the prospect most likely to disappoint at the pro level.
"He looks like the most obvious one who might not live up to being the No. 3 overall pick, or if he still does land inside the top-10 because he just doesn't have the high-caliber arm talent or athleticism," Trapasso said. "And I think if Mac Jones was in the 2011 draft or the 2001 draft, he would be someone locked into the top-three, because he is a very good pocket-passer. But we know in today's NFL -- Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, even Russell Wilson, who's part of that older guard -- you need to be able to improvise and elevate the team around you when your offensive line isn't great or when you don't have tremendous wide receivers.
"And we got a little bit of a glimpse of what Mac Jones could be like by watching [Dolphins quarterback] Tua Tagovailoa last year. He had an amazing wide receiver group [at Alabama], offensive linemen that were getting picked early, and he wasn't really the best athlete with the greatest arm. Those nine starts with the Dolphins were not very impressive. There was maybe a game or two where he looked good, the rest he was mediocre, at best.
"So, I think Mac Jones -- of those top-four, if we're going to call him one of the top-four quarterbacks off the board -- I think he has the strongest likelihood to ultimately not live up to being such an early pick."
In the history of the NFL Draft's modern era, no Alabama quarterback has ever been selected within the first three picks.
The entire NFL Draft conversation between Trapasso and Reiter can be accessed in the audio player above.
You can follow the Reiter Than You show on Twitter @sportsreiter and @CBSSportsRadio, and Tom Hanslin @TomHanslin.