The 49ers were all in, right? Pot committed? Insert any poker simile you want. That was the sense going into this season. They paid Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams.
Then the season went sideways, but leveled back out right before the bye. McCaffrey is back at practice, along with Jon Feliciano, Jauan Jennings and Jake Moody. Was it time to swing big? Stand pat?
With plenty of places worth improving, the 49ers made exactly one move at Tuesday's trade deadline. They traded a 2026 seventh-round pick to the Houston Texans for rotational defensive tackle Khalil Davis (not to be confused with the already-rostered Kalia Davis). The deal came in right under the wire, as the last one in the NFL this season.
It is the sixth-straight year the 49ers have made a trade at or before the deadline. The last time they made a small move like this with Houston, it was in 2021 with a sixth-round pick for Charles Omenihu, a wildly under-appreciated player for the 49ers. He was immense.
Don't expect Davis to have the same impact. He is an acquisition at the clearest position of need with experience under his belt, and athletic upside. That upside and the cheap cost is the clear appeal from the 49ers' end. He had a 9.83 (out of 10) Relative Athletic Score coming out of Nebraska in 2020 and has been a rotation player.
That said, the tape shows an inconsistent player who often plays with a poor pad level. He has substantial strength and had one great game of shooting gaps with burst against the Patriots, but he's been otherwise a mediocre player. That athleticism hasn't matched with technique to this point, though he does have far more experience and power than some of the 49ers' other options. It's not clear that he's going to be a significant addition in the run game, which is where the 49ers needed major help.
If you care about Pro Football Focus' grades (they are poor at accounting for assignment and scheme in my opinion), he has a below-average 53.5 grade on the year (91 out of 134 qualified DTs) with a 51.6 run defense grade (78 out of 134 DTs) and 56.6 pass rush grade (100 out of 134). There's a reason the Texans, helmed by DeMeco Ryans and in a mediocre spot at defensive tackle, traded him.
But defensive tackle was the most glaring position of need and credit should be given for addressing it, even if it was concluded in a tepid fashion with better clear run defenders (see: Jeremiah Ledbetter) as potential options.
Too much is being asked of Maliek Collins in the run and pass game. Jordan Elliott gets moved around all too much, a la Javon Kinlaw, for a massive man. He'll have one run defense play that catches your eye and another that makes you want to turn away from the screen.
Kevin Givens is a solid rotation player, but dealing with a groin injury. Kalia Davis has been poor, and not the plus run defender they hoped. The bet here may be that with Evan Anderson, the 49ers have some run help, and that Khalil Davis adds a bit more juice to the line.
I would argue that Kalia Davis' injury history and limited production is worrying to bet on and Anderson, though productive early, is a limited athlete. This is all to say that the 49ers' only move was a shoulder shrug-inducing one and doesn't really move the needle.
The decision to make just that one move isn't all that surprising. This team has not proven itself to be a serious contender, and one addition at one position would not have fixed that.
There is no question that another move on the defensive line, at linebacker or wide receiver would have helped, but is there a clear reason to believe that one big swing would solve this team? No.
Despite that, San Francisco had picks to play with. If OverTheCap's (please, use them instead of Spotrac for contract information) compensatory picks projections hold, the 49ers will have the following picks:
1st-round pick (own)
2nd-round pick (own)
3rd-round pick (own)
3rd-round pick (compensatory, from DeMeco Ryans/Ran Carthon)
4th-round pick (own)
4th-round pick (compensatory projected from Chase Young signing with NO)
5th-round pick (own)
6th-round pick (own)
7th-round pick (acquired from Panthers in Zane Gonzalez pick swap trade)
7th-round pick (compensatory projected from Clelin Ferrell signing with WAS)
7th-round pick (compensatory projected from Ray-Ray McCloud signing with ATL)
There are 11 selections there. Even if those last two sevenths don't come in, it would be nine selections. To go mostly quiet with that much of a draft cache, is at best, an affirmation in the current roster, and at worst, an indictment of what the front office sees this team accomplishing. The truth is somewhere in the middle, with an unproven team and not a ton of clear upgrades available.
Clearly the 49ers didn't see the right value. The offensive issues are hoped to be solved by McCaffrey's return, which should force teams to play less man coverage and improve the offense in the red zone. Ricky Pearsall has shown enough to bet on as the team's (mostly) X receiver to replace Aiyuk. Trading for a WR4 only made sense with a late-round pick if it was for someone like Kendrick Bourne. They are unquestionably thin there, and might need to lean on Jacob Cowing a bit more.
Defensive line is a bit more glaring, but on the edge, the 49ers have cause to feel solid. They expect Yetur Gross-Matos to return, and with Leonard Floyd effectively a pass down only player, and Sam Okuayinonu exceeding all expectations, there's just barely enough depth to believe Gross-Matos' return will help things.
Linebacker was one other spot that could have been addressed. But the 49ers are getting closer to Dre Greenlaw's return, and might feel that it would be harder to train a linebacker in a new system than it would be to just ride it out with De'Vondre Campbell and Dee Winters. One of the Jets' three linebackers could have been a good choice, as all are productive in a former Robert Saleh scheme, but the compensation might have been tricky.
All that said, the 49ers did not get meaningfully better on Tuesday.
Their brass will likely bill this as a statement of belief in the team, but what it really reflects is that McCaffrey is and has long been their only hope of becoming a genuine contender again. The dysfunction of the offense can likely only be solved with his return, and if he's not right, it won't matter whether the 49ers trade for a better backup linebacker.
The point is, this team failed to prove it was worth betting on heavily once again. With a strong rookie class this year, it's clear that the preservation of that draft stockpile for next season, and hoping the current roster can get healthy and figure it out might be the most logical approach.
Trade deadline grade: 5/5 Mehs + 1 shoulder shrug