Free Agency is just days away and rumors are flying like this is a middle school cafeteria. The one that is picking up more and more steam is that Kyle Kuzma is going to become the newest member of the Sacramento Kings. I’ll be honest and say that originally, Kuzma wasn’t very high on my list (ranked #12 on my FA Wish List), but as I’ve sat on the idea, everything seems to point to a perfect pairing. Let’s look at the numbers and see why.
The biggest knock on Kuz seems to be that he is a ‘shot-chucker’ and a low-efficient scorer. He averaged a career-high 21.2 Points last season, but did so on 44.8% from the field, 33.3% from 3, and 73.0% from the free throw line. The important part to remember is that Washington had yet another disjointed season littered with uncertainty and injuries. Their leading assist man was also Bradley Beal with 5.4 per game. For reference to the Kings, they saw both Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox go over that number with 7.3 and 6.1 Assists each, respectfully.
What is unique about Kuzma is that he’s had a career arc going from a role player to a star from his time in LA and Washington. If he comes over to Sacramento, he could see his role reduced back to a high-end role player in their high-powered offense. If this is the case, it stands to reason that his efficiency numbers will go up from last season.
Kuzma’s career-best 3P% of 36.1% came in 2020-21, his final season with the Lakers. In that season, 2.4 of his 5.6 total 3PA’s were Wide-Open 3’s, which NBA.com describes as 3-pointers where the defender is 6 or more feet away. That equates to 42.9% of his shots from beyond the arc, which makes sense when you play with LeBron James. This last season in Washington, 2.2 of his 7.5 attempts were Wide-Open, or 29.3%.
Sacramento averaged 19.3 Wide-Open 3’s per game last season, 3rd most in the NBA. By joining the Kings offense, Kuzma’s good looks are going to go up. Defenders have to double Sabonis down low, focus on Fox driving into the paint, and chase Kevin Huerter all over the court. This would leave Kuzma as a beneficiary on the perimeter to get more open looks than he saw last year.
The other benefit of the pairing is that the Kings are getting another player who can create for himself, which they desperately needed during their playoff series against the Warriors. Golden State shut down the dribble handoff game and Sabonis, but Fox and Malik Monk were able to become self-creators and run the pick-and-roll against the defense, but it was evident the Kings need one more player who can go get a bucket at any given time.
Kuzma has slowly added that to his repertoire, as shown by the percentage of his FG’s that are Unassisted. Last year, 43.6% of his made shots were Unassisted, a career-high for the lengthy forward, and again one of the reasons his efficiency was lower. While it wouldn’t be ideal for him to continuously isolate and get his own bucket, knowing that he has that in his back-pocket is a great addition for the Kings offense.
What he would hopefully do more of instead is work off the ball as a cutter. He ranked in the 80.4th percentile in the Cut playtype but only had 1.0 possessions of the play per game. He scored an astounding 1.45 Points per Play on that single possession. For reference, the Cavaliers led the league with 1.39 Points per Possession on the playtype.
Kuzma doesn’t come across as the best defender, but again I think this may have to do with Washington being a poor defensive team as a whole. Kuz had a defensive rating of 112.6 last year and 114.3 the year prior, but that drops to 105.4 in his final season with the Lakers. I don’t think Kuzma would be the type of individual defender you hang your hat on, but if he can be a solid team defender, I think Mike Brown could make it work. The duo of his 7’0” wingspan and Keegan Murray’s 6’11” wingspan would give the Kings great length on the perimeter, another thing they were lacking last season.
The structure of this being a perfect marriage is there. The player does things that the team needs to succeed more, and the team does things that the player needs to succeed more. Add in the fact that Kuzma is a great rebounder as well with 7.2 Rebounds last year and a career-high 8.5 the year prior, and it fills yet another gap that the Kings need help with. We won’t know it until we see it, but from a number’s perspective, the more you look at this one, the more it makes sense. And I think I’m finally ready to see it.