Despite more vaccinations nationwide, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now reporting that cases are going back up in 27 states, with surges mostly in the Northeast.
But in the Bay Area, cases continue to drop.
California's positivity rate over the past week is 1.6%, a third of the national average, and many Bay Area counties are running below even the statewide average.
Hospitalizations also continue to decline statewide.
Dr. George Rutherford is an epidemiologist and the Director of the Prevention and Public Health Group at UCSF.
He said California has been much more cautious than some parts of the country in lifting restrictions, compared to states that have reopened businesses at full capacity and lifted mask mandates.
"(There are) still fairly high levels of transmission in San Joaquin and Merced counties, those are still in the purple tier. But I think that the rest of the state - and especially the Bay Area - are pretty well advanced at keeping these infections down," he said.
Another factor is that B117, the more infectious variant that originated in the UK, is far more prominent in states like Michigan that are seeing surges.
"We have our own variants here, the so-called California variants or West Coast variants that seem to be outcompeting the UK variant and are accounting for a larger proportion of cases here in California. And they may be more easily controlled by vaccine and naturally acquired immunity," said Dr. Rutherford. "That’s a bit speculative, but that may have something to do with it as well."
It is also possible that this current surge just has not hit the West Coast yet.
Dr. Rutherford expects to see a surge in Florida and other popular spring break locations over the next few weeks.
"I’d also say in the Bay Area, it’s starting to level off. We’d like to see it continue to decline, but we’re still seeing statewide a couple of thousand cases a day, which we’d rather not see."
If more people in the Bay Area let loose and ignore basic safety precautions like masking, social distancing and keeping gatherings small, there may well be a surge here.
Dr. Rutherford added people need to be patient and hold on just a little while longer for more people to get vaccinated.
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