There are some encouraging – but early – signs that San Francisco's COVID-19 cases may have hit a peak in this current surge.
"Case numbers remain extremely high, just below 30 per 100,000. But the rate of increase is showing some signs of decline," said San Francisco Director of Public Health Dr. Grant Colfax on Tuesday.
The average daily case rate has begun to drop, reaching 270 for the first time in two weeks.
"But I must emphasize we are still far from out of the woods. We still have more cases, far more cases per day than the previous two surges," said Dr. Colfax.
The R0 dropped from 1.45 on Dec. 5, which means each COVID-19 patient would spread the virus to another 1.45 people on average, down to 1.13 by Dec. 26.
Dr. Colfax says this could mean stay-at-home orders are starting to work. But this is the third and biggest surge the city has seen this year, so if that's taught us anything it should be that another one could be on its way soon.
"We are at a brink. We can continue to move forward and continue to slow the spread of the virus," said Dr. Colfax. But the city has yet to see the impact of Christmas gatherings and New Year's Eve is just around the corner.
"I cannot emphasize enough how catastrophic it will be if people celebrate in ways that we normally do for New Year's Eve," he said. "This past week, unfortunately, set national records for travel since the pandemic began. This is extremely concerning and does not bode well for January."
Another post-holiday surge could mean thousands more hospitalizations and hundreds more deaths.
Dr. Colfax urged people planning to gather for New Year's Eve to reconsider, so that everyone can celebrate future holidays with all of their loved ones.
