Whether or not it’s invited, tornado season has arrived once again. However, scientists are suggesting that the traditional region of the U.S. often affected by the storms, known as Tornado Alley, could be expanding across the country.
While Tornado Alley is most commonly seen as the center of the country, in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota that are west of I-35, recent storms have led researchers to believe patterns are changing, with tornadoes appearing as far south as Alabama, and as far north as Michigan.
William Bunting from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center spoke with The Hill about what meteorologists are seeing in recent weather patterns.
Currently, the number of powerful tornados that have touched down since the start of the year is far outpacing historical averages seen in federal data. For example, in March, there was a four-day span where 31 tornadoes touched down, wreaking havoc across the Southeast, claiming the lives of 22, just days before more storms resulted in 66 tornado touchdowns, claiming the lives of 27 from Indiana to Alabama.
Bunting says this has become a serious cause for concern, as the phenomenon of winter tornadoes has grown throughout the last decade and is unusual.
“This past winter and our early spring has been as active as I can remember in years,” Bunting said. “The number of events, many of the same areas being affected, has been remarkable.”
So far, January of this year saw three times the number of tornadoes as what is typical for the month. While not at the same rate, the pattern of above historical averages continued in February and March.
According to Bunting, the changing patterns in when and where tornadoes occur are difficult to explain, but over the last three decades, they have started coming in bunches more frequently.
Bunting says there are far more months with either zero tornadoes or months with dozens of touchdowns than ever before. Even more concerning, the storms are becoming more common east of the I-35 corridor.
“On days when tornadoes occur, more of them per event — and they’re occurring more often further east,” Bunting said.
The interstate runs down the heart of the country from northern Minnesota to southern Texas. It has long been a dividing line for where the storms occur. With tornadoes now popping up more frequently east of I-35, Bunting emphasized that storm patterns aren’t shifting, but rather, “tornado alley is expanding.”
In the summer of 2021, NOAA released data showing the expansion of Tornado Alley, noting that the storm patterns were changing. Recently published research from Northern Illinois University has compounded those findings, as the risk of these severe storms only grows.
“The odds of something being hit by one of these events is going up substantially,” Walker Ashley, an atmospheric scientist and disaster geographer at Northern Illinois University, told ABC7. “It’s projected to continue to increase, just because people continue to build out. It’s just the natural occurrence of development in the United States.”
Even though an exact answer can’t be provided, scientists believe that climate change is playing a role in the shifting patterns. A study from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, published in January, found that supercell thunderstorms, which often produce tornadoes, are becoming more common on the east coast due to warmer weather.
For now, meteorologists are stressing the importance of taking these storms seriously, especially as they are hard to predict. Ashley says, “It is incredibly difficult to pinpoint when and where a specific ongoing storm is going to make a tornado.”
“The truth is that if you prepare and do the right thing, your chances of survivability is almost 100%,” Ashley said. “Now if you don’t do the right thing, you can certainly increase your odds of death and injury substantially, though.”
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