The reality of a seasonal COVID surge is coming into view, but isn't quite here.
That's according to Dr. Rebecca Lee Smith, University of Illinois associate professor of epidemiology. "I suspect that we are eventually going to move to where we have a COVID season," she told KCBS Radio's "Ask An Expert."
While states like California saw another surge in new COVID-19 cases over the summer – some parts of the country that avoided those spikes are on their way to surges as winter months set in.
The latter could be an annual occurrence, Smith said, albeit a smaller one.
"I suspect we are going there. We are not there yet," she explained. "The case numbers are still much higher than what I would call…people talk about endemic disease. Case numbers are still much higher and the spikes are much, much bigger than what I would call endemic disease. So, we're still in the pandemic but we are, I think, heading into seasonal spread just like influenza."
We appear to be headed for a likely surge at pandemic levels this winter.
Average daily case rates have jumped 35% in recent weeks, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The largest of those bumps has come in the upper Midwest – a region known for cold weather.
"I'm expecting that most states will see some surge after the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays simply because some people have had these activities where they come inside and gather with large groups of people," Smith said.
Smith, who didn't travel for Thanksgiving last year, told KCBS Radio's Holly Quan and Dan Mitchinson on Monday she plans to venture across state lines via car this year to visit family that's been tested for COVID-19.
Believing many Americans have "kind of been desensitized to the numbers," Smith said it's hard for many to understand context as the pandemic continues. "Unfortunately, I think a lot of people are at the place where they don't want to hear the message anymore and I entirely understand that, because I too would like to be able to get back my normal life and being able to gather and have fun and do the things that I normally want to do."
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