Right now, California’s COVID-19 numbers are incredibly low, ranking in at the lowest case rate out of any other state in the country earlier this week. But that wasn’t always the case, and it’s been difficult to pin down precisely what controls the ebbs and surges of the virus.
Everything is a factor in determining whether cases will go up or down, from masking to social distancing, but experts aren’t able to quantify how much.
In California’s case, the surge from over the summer can be largely attributed to the spread of the delta variant.
"There’s just a remarkable amount of diversity from state to state in what the epidemic is playing out like," said Dr. Andrew Noymer, epidemiologist and demographer at UC Irvine, on Thursday’s Ask an Expert with KCBS Radio’s Holly Quan and Dan Mitchinson.
"We don’t fully understand all of those differences," he said. Which is quite different from the past, such as the 1918 flu epidemic.
Another difference between the two epidemics is that there were more fatality cases in young children as well as old people with the flu, while COVID-19 primarily leads to fatalities in old people.
"That’s been the most unusual thing," said Noymer. "We’re still frankly mystified as to why children don’t get severe COVID-19 hardly as often as older people."
Children can still contract the virus, but in most cases, it’s mild. Typically, the ages from birth to five, are the most fragile age group with other respiratory diseases.
Both the vaccine and the mask are essential to preventing the spread of the virus, said Noymer, even though there are still factors that are being researched and assessed.
"To be totally candid, we don’t know how long that vaccination will last," he said. Immunity is waning, particularly as a new variant has arrived on the scene.
And because people in the United States didn’t all get vaccinated very quickly, like in Israel, it will be harder to tell when immunity fades. The staggered vaccination will lead to staggered loss of immunity, creating a more muted effect, said Noymer.
It’s likely that after eight months, people in the United States will wind up needing that 3rd dose, said Noymer. "I’m disappointed that the FDA is being so cautious with authorizing 3rd doses."
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