The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is warning that this winter will be wetter than what is typically seen in the Northwest and Great Lakes regions.
According to the latest forecast from the administration, which came out last week, conditions are expected to bring frigid temperatures and more snow. Meanwhile, the rest of the country should experience average or warm and dry winters.
The forecast is for Dec. 1 through Feb. 28 and is informed by the expectation that a La Niña pattern is going to develop due to the natural ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the jet stream. This usually results in winter storms appearing in the more northerly latitudes, leaving Southern states drier and warmer.
The chances of a La Niña pattern developing before the end of November are 60%, with the chance of it developing by January jumping to 75%.
Another wrinkle laid out in the forecast is the strength of the La Niña, as experts shared it doesn’t appear to be very strong, which will make predicting its impact even harder.
“Given its weak nature ... we do have less confidence, and some of the impacts may not be as wide-ranging,” Jon Gottschalk of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said at a news conference.
He added that a weak La Niña pattern will result in the jet stream potentially changing more than when it’s strong. This could produce weather that varies from week to week.
The winter is also going to be impacted by the ongoing changes in our planet’s climate, as NOAA climate scientist Tom Di Liberto said this has resulted in winter being the “fastest-warming season.”
“If you look at the long-term sorts of patterns, the signal is clearly warming for winter,” Di Liberto said.
If the forecast is accurate, it could result in an even worse drought situation in the southern parts of the country, which the US Drought Monitor continues to report is getting worse. States that would be impacted even more include Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico.
“Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought,” Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a press release. “And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief.”
For those preparing for a tough winter, visit NOAA’s Winter Storm Severity Index to get updates on what conditions are expected to be like.