COVID-19 case rates have been steadily going down in the Bay Area since omicron caused a significant wave a couple of months ago.
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But as the virus continues to mutate, there's still a slim chance that the numbers might go up again, despite the high vaccination rates throughout the Bay Area.
"If we've learned anything in the pandemic so far, it's that infections tend to come in waves," said Rishi Goel, an immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania on KCBS Radio's "Ask an Expert" with Holly Quan and Jason Brooks on Monday.
But what is encouraging, is that "more and more people are building up some level of immunity," he said, either through vaccination, infection, or a combination of both. This will help, at least in the short term, keep numbers down.
"At the same time, immunity is not a static concept, it's not permanent that you’re going to be protected against any infection forever," said Goel. "We may see some spikes in cases in the coming months."
These spikes may come as a result of a new variant emerging, or from people relaxing their behavior as mandates loosen.
Regardless, it's unlikely that a new wave would create severe disease or mass hospitalization the way some other variants have, he said.
Despite knowing a lot more about the virus than they did two years ago, experts are still unable to entirely predict what kind of variant might come out next. When delta emerged, the assumption was that any variants that followed would be similar, but omicron quickly dispelled that notion.
"Omicron kind of blindsided us," said Goel. Surveillance of COVID-19’s evolution has gotten very good, he said, to monitor the different sequences of the virus that people are getting infected with.
If a new variant does come along, experts are now more able to quickly determine the characteristics of the mutation, and how to respond to it.
But even with that, the uncertainty that comes with COVID-19 has become expected, he said. But there are reasons for "cautious optimism," on what the pandemic is going to look like going forward, earning that group immunity that will help establish a new normal.
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