It's news that would make any bacon lover shudder: A possible pork shortage is on the horizon in California.
Starting next year, California will begin enforcing an animal welfare proposition approved by voters in 2018 that requires farms to provide more space for breeding pigs. The new confinement standards also apply to out-of-state producers who sell their pork products in California. The issue: Only about 4% of U.S. hog operators are currently compliant with the new standards.
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Unless the courts intervene or the state temporarily allows non-compliant meat to be sold in the state, analysts say California will lose almost all of its pork supply and pork producers will face higher costs to regain a key market.
The "other white meat" is especially popular in California, which consumes roughly 15% of all pork produced in the country. According to Rabobank, a global food and agriculture financial services company, California's restaurants and grocers use about 255 million pounds of pork a month, but its farms produce only 45 million pounds.
With most of its pork coming from out of state and those farms not in compliance with the new standards, industry experts say California could see its pork supply basically disappear when the new rules take effect. That will drive up prices and make certain products, like bacon, a hot commodity and nearly impossible to find. Economist Lon Hatamiya said shoppers in California could easily see a 60% increase in pork prices.
"I took a look at what the current bacon prices are in L.A., and they're currently a little under $9 a pound," Hatamiya told AgriTalk. "Bacon prices could go up to almost $14.34 a pound. Similarly, the pork loin prices are about $5.99 a pound. That could go up to $8.50 a pound. That's a drastic increase."
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Hatamiya said the pork price increase will also impact other components of the economy.
"If consumers decided to continue to buy pork at a higher price, let's say 50 to 60% higher than they were currently paying, they're going to have that much less to pay for their rent, for their for transportation, for utilities, you name it," he said. "So there's a broader impact economic impact upon our communities and just the higher price of pork."
And consumers won't be the only ones hit with the cost increase. Barry Goodwin, an economist at North Carolina State University, said the costs to producers will be catastrophic. In an interview with Farm Journal, Goodwin said the stresses placed on the entire production and marketing chain will favor larger processors, leading to the loss of small farms and further consolidation of the industry.
Goodwin said the regulation will make it difficult to sell pork in California and in other states as well. Much of the pork that was previously destined for the Golden State will be sent to other markets, causing the value of pork in those states to crash as they absorb a wave of surplus product. While that might be good news for consumers who will see lower prices in those states, it's really going to impact the bottom line for pork producers across the nation.
Under California's new law, a breeding pig must be able to lie down, stand up, turn around and fully extend their limbs without touching the sides of their stalls or another animal. Each pig must be allotted at least 24 square feet. The law forbids the sale of meat from pigs born of sows not housed in conformity. The law also applies to egg-laying hens and veal calves, each with its own set of confinement requirements.
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