After a month and a half, the omicron curve is flattening in South Africa, one of the nations first hit by the new variant.
As it continues to plateau, the anticipation for the curve to flatten elsewhere is high, particularly in the United States
"We have to be a little bit more cautious," said Dr. William Schaffner, Professor of Preventive Medicine at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine on KCBS Radio's "Ask an Expert" on Tuesday with Dan Mitchinson. "We're a much larger country than South Africa and much more diverse."
The plateau will spread across the country gradually, and is already happening in some cities like Baltimore and New York, he said. "Let's hold our breath and cross our fingers that by mid-February we could see a sustained decline in omicron across much of the United States."
"Wouldn't that be great," said Schaffner.
In order to really know if the decline in cases is happening, health experts will look for when the proportion of positive tests drops to below 5%, he said. That will indicate that the virus is not spreading as quickly as before.
And even more importantly, this will signal a decline in hospitalizations, providing hospitals much-needed relief. "Health systems across the country continue to be very stressed," he said.
The current variant is sticking around longer than previously anticipated, most likely due to the large populations of unvaccinated people in the country's rural areas. Because that population is more spread out than those in urban areas, it will take the virus longer to get around, said Schaffner.
"It will continue, in a lower key, to spread in the U.S.," he said.
Health experts will continue to monitor the spread using hospitalization reports, he said. Although the country's voluntary reporting system is at times inefficient, and might be due to improvement in the future, hospitals have been consistent with reporting numbers.
But it’s likely a good amount of people are walking around right now with the virus and just don’t know it. With the vaccine and the booster, many people don’t feel significant or any symptoms at all. People assume it’s a cold, and don’t bother to get tested.
“This is, and continues to be, a very contagious virus,” said Schaffner.
And it’s essential to continue viewing the pandemic from a global lens, said Schaffner. With omicron, and most of the other variants, they have first emerged abroad, and then spread to the United States and other developed countries, he said.
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