COVID-19 cases are still surging across Europe due to the highly transmissible BA.2 subvariant, but it may still be some time before the United States experiences a similar surge, and it's unclear just how much of a surge that might be.
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"We've actually seen case numbers plateau in a lot of parts of the country and as BA.2 becomes the majority, I think it's going to start causing more infections," said Dr. Bill Hanage, a professor of epidemiology and member of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University on KCBS Radio's "Ask an Expert" with Holly Quan and Jason Brooks on Friday.
"Of course, how many more, that's something we're going to find out," he said.
So far, BA.2 doesn't seem all that different from the BA.1 omicron variant in terms of the severity of illness it causes, he said, which is good, because most BA.1 cases haven't caused severe illness, as opposed to the delta variant.
There may be some differences between the two, but "small differences can take a while to actually become apparent," said Hanage.
Each variant, from BA.1 to BA.2, and all the others that have been globally significant, "have been substantially divergent" for the population dealing with it at the time.
In looking ahead to future variants that might spread across the world, vaccines are still the most important factor in preventing severe illness.
"Globally, getting vaccines out to people around the world is going to have an enormous benefit in terms of saving lives," said Hanage.
Despite the benefits of getting everyone vaccinated globally, it's still a priority to get more of the elderly population in the United States vaccinated and boosted.
"Because of the substantial fraction who have not received the vaccine, you can actually see this country has done much, much worse with the first wave of omicron than comparable European countries," he said.
That first wave likely hit harder because the United States did a worse job vaccinating older people.
And it is still important to distinguish the difference between protection against all infections and protection against serious illness, he said.
As is well documented by now, protection against all infection drops off pretty quickly after getting boosted, but protection against serious illness still remains.
Stopping the virus requires a "multi-pronged approach," that doesn’t just rely on the vaccine, it includes new treatments and other innovations.
A fourth booster is likely going to become needed soon, and other countries have already started distributing them, for continuing to protect the more vulnerable portion of the population.
"Most of us are probably going to be doing pretty well with three," said Hanage.
Although some omicron-specific boosters are in the works for the future, they might not be effective if the next variant doesn’t have the same features of omicron.
"If you remember delta last year, people were saying the same thing about a delta booster," he said, and omicron is actually distantly related to delta.
So all in all, "it's a good thing to be making one, we shouldn't be guaranteeing it’s going to be the most useful thing," said Hanage.
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