A new omicron subvariant, called BA-2 can re-infect people who've already had omicron. But even though it's more contagious than the original omicron variant, it's not causing another wave of cases.
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The main reason it's not creating a new wave of cases boils down to one important factor – timing.
"If BA-2 had come at another time of the year, even probably a few months later, we'd probably see a second wave," said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, Professor of Medicine and Associate Dean for Regional Campuses at UCSF on KCBS Radio's "Ask an Expert" with Holly Quan and Jason Brooks on Monday.
"But because so many people have been recently infected, or have gotten recent vaccination, we have this big forcefield right now that really can't succumb to BA-2," he said.
Immunity has increased in the majority of the population, and COVID-19 cases have been dropping for some time now, which even the new variant can't prevent.
"The train has already left the station, we're going down, not even BA-2 can stop us at this moment," said Chin-Hong.
So far, the rate of cases cropping up with the new variant has been relatively low, with only about 4% in the United States.
In other studies, such as one out of Denmark, the portion of people who did get reinfected with BA-2 was mostly under the age of 20, unvaccinated, and exhibited only mild symptoms, said Chin-Hong.
The symptoms and recovery rates are also relatively the same between the original omicron variant and the new BA-2 variant. "People who have not been vaccinated, people who have been lucky enough not to catch BA-1 may succumb to that if it increases in proportion in this country," he said.
Right now, it's likely that BA-2 is the predominant strain in 43 other countries worldwide, he said. Countries that were already hit hard by omicron aren't experiencing an uptick in the new variant, it's only increasing in countries that didn’t see a wave of omicron, like in South Korea and some parts of Asia.
In those areas, hospitals are likely to be stretched thin by the new variant, said Chin-Hong.
Even though BA-2 is about 30% more transmissible than the original variant, people don’t need to worry about it spreading outdoors, he said, but people should be wary of close contact with others in public spaces.
The new variant has hit the scene just as California and the rest of the country have eased masking policies, creating some concern over how that will impact BA-2's spread.
"I do think it's a very easy and cheap and acceptable intervention to make," he said. "However, we’re deaccelerating very quickly."
Clearing a path forward is likely to sit better with people, he said. "We just have to be flexible."
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