Thursday’s jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that 57,000 new jobs were recorded in June, a weaker number than was expected. What does this really indicate about the economy?
There are a few things that the results appear to suggest, according to experts: wages aren’t keeping up with costs, companies are cautious about hiring, and artificial intelligence might be impacting employment.
In a Bluesky thread, Economic Policy Institute economist Elise Gould said one of the report’s surprises was a 61,000 decrease in leisure and hospitality jobs, given expectations around the World Cup. The global soccer championships began on June 11 and are being held in North America through July 19, bringing travelers from around the world to the U.S.
Gould also noted that May growth in leisure and hospitality were revised down by 30,000. Still, the World Cup did help create new jobs. According to Gould, analysts believe the it added 40,000 jobs to June numbers and “without that, job growth would have been 17,000.”
“Perhaps those gains are offset by reduced discretionary spending as real wages fall,” said Gould of hospitality gains related to the World Cup.
While fresh inflation data won’t come out until later this month, the last consumer price index report from the BLS showed that inflation had ticked up to 4%, and the recent conflict between the U.S. and Iran resulted in average national gas prices climbing above $4 per gallon earlier this year. During President Joe Biden’s administration in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation rose to historic levels around 9% and then fell to around 2% in 2024. For the past two months, the unemployment rate has been around 4%.
“Recent price data suggest year over year real wages likely fell in June,” said Gould. She added that “workers and their families are finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet and real wages are most surely now below where they were in January 2025.
Wage growth compared to costs in the U.S. has been an issue for decades. Recently, Democratic lawmakers announced a plan to increase the national minimum wage from $7.25 per hour to $25 per hour in order to catch back up with costs.
NBC News also noted that “wage growth tracked below inflation for a third consecutive month,” in June.
“And pay raises are not keeping up with prices, a major reason consumer sentiment remains so low,” said the New York Times.
Reports do indicate that U.S. employers’ slowed hiring in June could be a sign companies still have a “cautious economic outlook,” when it comes to hiring, let alone pay increases. President Donald Trump has said that his tariff-focused economic policy is geared in part towards brining manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., but Gould said that plan isn’t paying off, at least yet.
“Manufacturing employment is crawling along, gaining 3k jobs in June, all in durable goods,” she said. “After downward revisions, manufacturing lost jobs in May. Since January 2025 when Trump took office, the manufacturing sector has lost 75,000 jobs.”
Health care sector jobs (these accounted for all most all overall job growth last year, NBC News noted) slowed last month to 22,000 jobs, lower than its 38,000 monthly average in 2025. NBC News said this is another “troubling sign,” for the labor market.
Laura Ullrich, director of economic research in North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, described the general status of the labor market as a “standstill” in a Thursday article.
“That stillness lands very differently depending on your situation. If you already have a job, slack water is reassuring – layoffs are scarce and the ground under your feet feels relatively secure,” she explained. “If you are looking for a job, the same conditions are the whole problem, with no current to carry you forward. There are few new openings to pursue, with hiring at levels near where we were 11 years ago, when the labor force was nearly 13 million people fewer than it is today.”
There’s also the ongoing concern about AI impacting the labor force. HR Dive said that companies are restructuring around AI. Ger Doyle, regional president of North America at ManpowerGroup cited by HR Dive, said its been driving cuts in the technology sector most. He also said AI is creating a need for new skill sets.
In a recent article, The Washington Post reported on the impact AI has had on secretaries and administrative assistants.
“Employment projection data offers a grim outlook for the women-dominated profession that may be particularly vulnerable to AI-induced job displacement compared to the broader workforce,” said the outlet. “But some admins are embracing the technology – and even using it as a tool to get ahead.”
