Republican Vice President JD Vance and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) made headlines this week regarding whether they might end up running against each other for the presidency in 2028.
During an interview this week with Michael Knowles, Vance called Ocasio-Cortez, also known as AOC, a “leading Democratic candidate” for the upcoming election.
“I hope he is [the Republican nominee], that’s what I’ll say,” said Ocasio-Cortez when asked about the comment.
Before candidates start campaigning in earnest for the White House, we first have to get through the midterm elections this year. That doesn’t mean that people will wait to start speculating, as the Vance and Ocasio-Cortez headlines indicate.
Vance, 41, and AOC, 36, are both millennials and a race between them would present a shift from the past decade of elections. Going back to 2016, current President Donald Trump ran against former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, a fellow baby boomer; former President Joe Biden, a member of the Silent Generation and former Vice President Kamala Harris, a member of Gen X.
AOC is also one of the most prominent members of the Democratic Socialists of America, alongside Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders on the left side of the Democratic party. Vance, on the other hand, is on a course to represent “more radical politics than Trumpism” on the right, according to The Economist.
Are Vance and Ocasio-Cortez really the leading candidates? In recent weeks, multiple polls have provided insight into how various potential candidates might do come November 2028. Betting sites Kalshi and Polymarket also have been tracking bets on the race.
Let’s start with Echelon poll results released on June 16. That poll found Harris in the lead of the potential Democratic candidates, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez. Vance was in the lead of the Republicans, followed by current Secretary of State Marco Rubio, President Trump’s son Donald Jr., and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Polling from Big Data Poll released June 29 had different percentages, but the top four potential candidates were in identical rankings. Then, came poll results of New Hampshire voters released June 30 by St. Anselm College with a different lineup – Buttigieg led there, AOC was in second place and Newsom was third, though the option “other” won out over Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom. On the Republican side, Vance was still the top, followed by Rubio in a close second and DeSantis in a distant third.
Polling averages from Race to the White House still show Harris (who lost to Trump in the 2024 election) in the lead of the Democrats, followed by Newsom, Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez. It also still showed Vance far in the lead of the GOP, with Rubio in second.
The most recent polls show that Vance consistently remains at the lead of the potential Republican pool of presidential candidates in 2028, while Ocasio-Cortez also regularly lands in the top four. Data from betting markets appeared a bit different than the poll results.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket had Newsom at the top of the pack, followed by Ocasio-Cortez in second. Kalshi and Polymarket both had Vance and Rubio at the front of the GOP pack.
As for who might win the presidential election, the two sites differed. Kalshi data actually showed Rubio in the lead, followed by Vance, Newsom, Sen. John Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Ocasio-Cortez. Polymarket showed Vance in the lead, followed by Rubio, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez.
