It looks like we’re on track for “super El Niño” weather conditions later this year, meaning that the ocean-warming weather pattern could break records not seen in years.
In an article published Monday, The Washington Post even questioned if the upcoming El Niño season could be the strongest in a century. Let’s take a look at what the forecasters are saying and how this weather pattern could impact our lives.
According to a Monday update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we’re currently in a La Niña weather pattern. Both La Niña and El Niño are naturally occurring, with El Niño referring to a warming of the ocean surface and La Niña referring to the opposite.
NOAA’s update said that the current La Niña is expected to switch to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral in the next month and remain that way through roughly July. Then, El Niño is expected to emerge in roughly mid to late summer and persist through at least the end of this year.
“So once those sea surface temperatures become a half a degree above normal, it becomes an El Niño. but when it exceeds two degrees above normal – and these are degrees centigrade – so when it goes to two degrees centigrade above normal, then we go into a super El Niño conditions,” explained Dr. Barry Keim – director of the Environmental Health, Climate, and Sustainability Program at the Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center in New Orleans, La. – in an interview with Audacy station WWL this week.
Keim told WWL that the last time we had “super El Niño” conditions was over a decade ago, in 2015. Before that, there was a super El Niño in 1998 and another in 1982. Audacy reported in 2024 that scientists expected El Niño events to get more extreme in the future.
Yale Climate Connections said in Monday article that a current pattern of cyclones indicates that the upcoming expected El Niño could be one of these extreme events. It said that three tropical cyclones “will provide an extra nudge for what’s already one of the strongest embryonic set-ups for El Niño that some longtime researchers have ever observed.”
Authors of the article also noted that the “subsurface equatorial Pacific is now warmer than average for April, with only a paper-thin layer of cooler-than-average waters at the surface.” They said that’s another sign that a “truly powerful El Niño,” event will take shape this year.
However, it’s still a bit early to tell exactly what will happen. While Keim said the probability is “pretty high with this long-range forecasting,” he also jokingly said to “keep in mind, you know, we’re not that good at it [forecasting]… I mean, the climate system is so complex.”
Yale Climate Connections also said that “April is often too soon to gain a confident sense of whether El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions will be in place for the next northern fall and winter.” Even so, it noted that chances of El Niño have looked high since at least March.
“On April 9, NOAA will be issuing its next monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion, which will include the agency’s latest official month-by-month probabilities for El Niño as well as a probabilistic outlook for El Niño strength,” Yale Climate Connections noted. NOAA’s most recent report said there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions overall this year.
As for what El Niño periods bring, Audacy has reported that “marine life off the Pacific coast is strongly impacted since that upwelling weakens with warmer temperatures,” Citing the NOAA. A lack of nutrients can then result in reduced phytoplankton, which many fish feed on.
Kevin Grise, an associate professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia said a “super” El Niño it just a very strong version of the weather phenomenon. Going into fall and winter, El Niño often brings more cool-season precipitation.
“I think we’re very confident we’ll have an El Niño,” said Keim. “The question is how strong is it going to be and do we reach super status and that obviously remains to be seen, but right now, given what the models are saying, they have that probability of around 60 or 65% that it is indeed going to happen.”
