SAN FRANCISCO (KCBS RADIO) – For many of us, memories of being required to wear masks in public places and COVID-19 lockdown orders are fading into the past. However, new pathogens threaten to lead us back to sanitizer-hoarding days.
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Currently, avian influenza is one of the top potential pandemic concerns for public health officials in the U.S. This virus, also called H5N1 was first observed in 1996 and has been causing outbreaks in animals for nearly three decades, according to Foreign Affairs. While the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the current risk for human infection is low, there have been 13 human cases reported since this March.
Bird flu in U.S. dairy cows – and domestic cats
As of Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cows that was first identified in March 2024 had caused 31 cases in six states (Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Michigan, South Dakota and Texas) over the past 30 days. It said the most recent case was detected Tuesday.
These numbers likely only account for a fraction of actual cases, said Reuters in a Thursday report.
“The U.S. bird-flu outbreak in dairy cattle is much larger than official figures suggest due to farmers’ reluctance to test their animals and risk the economic consequences of a positive result, according to Reuters interviews with dairy experts, veterinarians, and farmers in six states with known cases,” said the outlet.
Joe Armstrong, a veterinarian and cattle expert at the University of Minnesota, said a more accurate case count for his state would probably be three to five times higher.
“While we have nine official positives, there are many, many, many more farms that are impacted or infected that are just not testing,” he explained.
Last week, the Colorado Veterinary Medical Association reported that six feline cases of Influenza A (HPAI H5N1) had been diagnosed in domestic cats in the state so far this year. While one was directly associated with a commercial dairy facility and others were allowed to roam outdoors, two of the cats were indoor only with no direct exposure to the virus.
“Five of the six cases have presented with similar clinical signs and disease progression: an initial complaint of lethargy and inappetence, followed by progressive respiratory signs in some and fairly consistent progressive neurologic signs in most,” said the CMVA.
Could bird flu really become a human pandemic?
As we mentioned earlier, bird flu has been circulating worldwide for decades. Should we really be concerned about it causing a pandemic?
“The more virus that we have in more species and in more environments, the more potential we have for it to become infectious in humans,” explained Maurice Pitesky, associate professor in cooperative extension at UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, in an interview with KCBS Radio this June.
“And that’s really what we’re ultimately worried about.”
Foreign Affairs reported that the mutated strain of H5N1 influenza virus detected in dairy cattle over the past five months does pose a potential risk for a pandemic-causing virus. It argued that governments and international organizations are not doing enough to prepare for that possibility, even after the wake-up-call of COVID-19.
Indeed, Pitesky told KCBS Radio that “we don’t do enough surveillance,” for the virus.
“We know, for example, that it is in wild birds, domestic poultry, dairy cows, all kinds of wild mammals. It’s in raw sewage. We only have a handful of cases that are in humans that we know of,” he said. “In part, that’s because we don’t do enough surveillance. But it’s also probably in part that the virus hasn't adapted enough to humans.”
According to the CDC, state and local health departments monitor people exposed to infected birds, poultry, dairy cows and other animals for 10 days after exposure. As of Aug. 9, at least 4,500 people had been monitored for the virus, including at least 1,880 with exposures to dairy cows and at least 2,600 with exposures to birds and other animals including poultry. Around 230 people were tested for novel influenza A.
“It is impossible to know when a new pandemic will arise, or which specific pathogen will be its cause. H5N1 is just one of the viruses that could mutate into something that will start a pandemic. But eventually, one will happen,” Foreign Affairs warned. It added that H5N1 could mutate to become more infectious and dangerous in humans at any point.
For now, Pitesky said people in high-risk environments should try to protect themselves from infection as much as possible. He noted that it might be too uncomfortable for dairy farm workers to wear N95 masks in hot summer temperatures, but that shields may help protect them from H5N1 aerosols.
“The reality is, is that we’re… in a very challenging situation here, and we’re kind of teetering on… on the brink of something that... that I don’t think any of us want to deal with again,” said Pitesky.
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