Analytics have become an important part of sports, especially football.
Pro Football Focus has turned football stats into a profitable business.
PFF provides date to every NFL team, over 100 NCAA FBS teams, CFL teams, The Washington Post, ESPN and The Athletic.
They grade very single NFL player on a weekly basis on how good or bad they played on a scale from 0 to 100, with many factors involved.
Stats are fun to look at, and if you’re smart, analyze. They can help people in fantasy leagues and those looking to wager some money on a game.
But, in my opinion, the business of granular statistics can get ridiculous.
Kevin Cole, former Data Scientist at PFF and now with Unexpected Points.
This is nothing against Mr. Cole, who is very smart but a Tweet sent out on Monday morning made me do a double take.
“Steelers are on a run of luckier results since Russell Wilson took over as starter,” Cole wrote. “Three of the four wins were losses if you go by my adjusted scores.”
According to Cole, the Steelers should’ve lost to the Ravens 21-18, 25-22 to the Commanders and 21-20 to the Jets.
Take a look at Cole’s “Adjusted Scores & Relevant Metrics” and decide for yourself.
So, should the Steelers really be 5 and 5? Should we tell the Steelers and the NFL to adjust the standings and that the 8-2 record is a mistake?!
The Steelers and Wilson have gotten lucky? Is that how football works? Sometimes you get a call, sometimes you made an unlikely play.
Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin gambled and took at 4-2 starting quarterback in Justin Fields and replaced him with Russell Wilson. A call that wasn’t very popular, but in hindsight, Tomlin was right.
The offense looks (with the exception of no touchdowns on Sunday) like the first competent Steelers offense in years.
This team is 8-2, not 11-0 like the 2020 Steelers, but 99 percent of the experts will say this 2024 team is a lot better than the 2020 team.
The defense is very good, if not great, the offense can (normally score) and special teams has been a game changer.
You can look at stats all you want, but the Steelers are 8-2, not 5-5.
The problem with relying too heavily on analytics is it takes away the human emotions, mistakes and other factors that made sports so amazing to watch.
Two-time league MVP Lamar Jackson is a top contender to win another MVP list year, but when he plays the Steelers, he’s 1-4.
While the Steelers prepare defensively for Jackson, you can’t say there isn’t something mental going on inside Jackson’s head. When he thinks of the Steelers he gets rattled.
How do analytics explain that?