PITTSBURGH (93.7 The Fan) – Now with another Top 25 road win and above .500 in the ACC, is Pitt closing in on back-to-back NCAA Tournament bids?
If you follow bracketology the answer about an NCAA Tournament bid is no. Or at best, not yet. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi lists the first eight schools left off the invitation list and Pitt is not even among them, let alone being penciled in at this point. CBS Sports lists 20 schools as ‘on the bubble’, the Panthers are not among them.
In the latest NET rankings (which calculates who you beat and where, your offensive and defensive efficiency, winning percentage and adjusted winning percentage) Pitt, 16-8 overall, is 53rd, they’ve moved up seven spots recently. They are still ranked behind 13-11 Xavier (51st), 14-11 St. John’s (48th), 16-8 Boise State (46th), 13-11 Villanova (39th), 15-9 Cincinnati (36th).
In the RPI rankings (which calculates the team’s winning percentage, opponent’s winning percentage and average opponent’s, opponent’s winning percentage), Pitt is 86th. That is behind Virginia Tech (81st) and Syracuse (31st) in the conference. It’s a lot to grasp and Pitt head coach Jeff Capel struggles with it.
“I don’t understand all of these numbers, I don’t understand how they get to them,” Capel said during his radio show on 93.7 The Fan and the Pitt Panthers Radio Network. “Analytical numbers are important, but in our game it’s not everything. The eye test (is too). I think the majority of the decisions are analytical. They are just looking at numbers. They say margin of victory doesn’t count, that’s BS. Wake Forest beat Georgia Tech by 30 plus points on the road and they jumped 10 spots in the NET, from what I heard. You can’t tell me margin of victory is not important.”
Capel also has come to the realization that certain schools get the benefit of the doubt based on its reputation. He fully admits they did when he played and coached at Duke, now he realized it sucks when you are at Pitt.
“I do not look at bracketology,” Capel said. “I hear about people complaining about it. I don’t understand it. I don’t agree with a couple things (for instance) before a game was played this year, there were brackets. I don’t understand that because you don’t even know your team.”
What he questions about NCAA brackets made before a season even starts, is in today’s age of the transfer portal and multiple transfers, coaches don’t even know what their teams can do yet, let alone an outsider. It’s likely even those early brackets influence final decisions.
Capel said he remembers last year on Selection Sunday sweating whether his team would make it. He said he went into it feeling good, but started to wonder as more the names were announced. Even though they made it last year, they had to be involved in a ‘Play-In’ game in Dayton. He questioned why NC State got in last year and Clemson didn’t even though the Tigers won the head-to-head meetings and had a higher NET.
This year Pitt and Syracuse have roughly the same record 16-8 to the Orange’s 15-9, but Syracuse won both of the head-to-head matchups. Will that matter at this year’s selection? Plus, there is the appearance of a down ACC, Capel isn’t buying it, but most who predict these decisions think four, maybe five teams will get in from the ACC. That would mean North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, maybe 16-7 Clemson and currently Wake Forest is listed as ‘the first team out’ by Lunardi.
Wake has five good wins this year—Florida, Rutgers, Miami, Virginia and NC State, all at home. Clemson won at North Carolina, Syracuse and Alabama and beat TCU on a neutral floor. Pitt’s best wins are all on the road-Duke, Virginia, NC State and West Virginia. Panthers also beat Wake Forest at home.
Panthers have won six of its last seven and senior forward Blake Hinson said on The Joe Starkey Show on 93.7 The Fan that they haven’t played their best basketball yet. As for how this compares to last year’s NCAA Tournament team to this year’s?
“I hate to compare,” Hinson said on 93.7 The Fan. “I’m not a comparison person. I’m not going too. We did have high schoolers at the start of the season, we don’t any more (speaking of guards Jaland Lowe & Bub Carrington). Every year is different, every season is different.”
“Of course, we want to go to the tournament, but you don’t go to the tournament if you don’t take care of the steps in front of you. Louisville is the next step in front of us.”
Hear that game on 93.7 The Fan Saturday at 6p with pregame with Bill Hillgrove, Curtis Aiken and Cale Berger at 5:30p.