PITTSBURGH (93.7 The Fan) – There are years, 1987 Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez in 1993, Bryce Harper in 2010 where the top overall pick in the MLB Draft is obvious. This is not one of those years.
There are reputable mock drafts for as many as five different players predicted to be selected number one overall by the Pirates. Three of them in college and a pair in high school, both shortstops.
MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo told the PM Team on 93.7 The Fan that fact makes it much more about sign-ability or value this year than when there is an obvious choice.
“There are two things that come into play,” Mayo said. “You want to take the best guy. If there isn’t a clear-cut best guy, that’s where we are at this year. Then you start looking at who you like the most and who will sign for what.”
Here are the candidates
· Of the two high school shortstops-Mayo said he polled a number of scouts who said, 13 to 7, that California native Marcelo Mayer is better than Texas native Jordan Lawlar. The belief there being Mayer potentially is the better hitter.
· Vanderbilt pitcher Kumar Rocker-Mayo said he’s had a good season and has the size and velocity that teams crave. However, there are questions about his off-speed pitches and his command.
“I think a lot of people thought he was the next Stephen Strasburg,” Mayo said. “That was unfair to him. He is just not as complete a pitcher as Strasburg was coming out of San Diego State.”
· Vanderbilt pitcher Jack Leiter-Mayo said he is ahead of Rocker, but he doesn’t have the prototypical size (6’1”), gave up 14 home runs and only has 21 career NCAA starts. Leiter did still strike out 179 in 110 innings with 45 walks.
· Louisville catcher Henry Davis-hit .370 with 15 home runs in 2021. He comes with a great arm and likely a short road to get to the majors.
The picking of Davis, while a top talent, could be a reach for need rather than best player available. Mayo warns against that.
“Drafting for need at the very top of the draft is a bad idea,” Mayo told 93.7 The Fan. “Then you start talking yourself into things.”
“If you are drafting for need, they should go out and get a catcher. I think I’m the third best catching prospect in the system right now.”
Emphasizing again, you can’t go for need with the number one overall pick. No matter what team it is.
All of the college players could go back to school and use that to try and get the most out of the Pirates. Only Leiter has been vocal about doing that potentially. The pair of shortstops have options as well.
“High school players do have leverage,” Mayo said. “Marcelo Mayer could go on to Southern Cal. Jordan Lawlar has a Vanderbilt commitment. A commitment to Vanderbilt is huge. If he starts to slide. Then you might see him tell people he won’t sign for that because in three years I will be the best player in the country.”
Mayo said the Pirates are keeping all talk close right now. He notes getting a player to sign for less than slot value isn’t being cheap, it’s a strategy to use that money later in the draft.
They do have options and while he doesn’t know exactly who they will pick. He does believe this.
“Marcelo Mayer is the best player in this draft class.”