Fears of a 2023 recession continue to grow among Americans, with recent surveys showing that the chance of one remains high. But where should you look for work if you’re scared about the effects of a recession costing you your job?
The Wall Street Journal reports that recent surveys predict a 61% chance that a recession hits the US in the next 12 months, but some career fields should remain strong even if that happens, according to a report from LinkedIn.
Even with the job market remaining strong, many could find themselves looking for work. Economists say that even if the country doesn’t hit a full-blown recession, a “rolling recession” will affect certain industries.
“Labor markets remain tighter compared to pre-pandemic levels,” Rand Ghayad, head of economics and global labor markets at LinkedIn, said in the company’s monthly newsletter. “They’re still resilient. They’re still stronger than what we’ve seen in the pre-pandemic period, but they’ve been slowing down gradually and will likely continue to slow down over the next few months.”
If you find yourself becoming a victim of the “rolling recessions,” don’t fret, as employment in other industries may be easier to obtain than your own.
So where should those worried about the rescission look when the slowdown happens? LinkedIn classified industries into three different groupings; those with moderately tight labor markets; extremely tight labor markets; and those with slack in their labor markets.
Among the industries that job seekers could flock to if they find themselves needing employment includes moderately tight markets, like tech, entertainment, information and media, professional services, retail estate, retail, and financial services, LinkedIn shared.
The report from LinkedIn says that in these industries, applicants are having an easier time finding work, while employers have to entice them to their openings.
On the flip side, employers are having an easier time finding workers for government administration, education, and consumer services, LinkedIn shared. All of these industries are defined as having slack, being that they have more applicants than openings, so they don’t have to try as hard to fill positions.
Industries described as having extremely tight labor markets include accommodation, oil and gas, hospice, and health care because LinkedIn says “employers cannot fill vacancies fast enough.”
Still, LinkedIn considers the hospitality industry the tightest, as it is still half a million dollars below its pre-pandemic payroll levels, even with hotels, bars, and restaurants raising hourly wages by about 23%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports.
“This industry is actually still looking to hire a lot of people. It’s the tightest industry in the United States,” Ghayad said. “There’s a lot of demand. They’re looking for people. There’s a lot of shortages. They can’t find people so these industries, services, industries, accommodation, and anything that has to do with food or entertainment are booming.”
A recession has still not hit the country officially. However, Ghayad pointed to the moves recently made by the Federal Reserve, saying that it has cited the tightness of the labor market as its motivation for interest rate hikes which have the goal of taming inflation, but could cause a recession.
Because of this, the economist says that much of what will happen with the economy, the labor market, and inflation rest mostly with the central bank.
“Everything depends on what the Fed will be doing over the next couple of months,” Ghayad said.
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