“Now, it’s not in my habit to agree with The Wall Street Journal, but Donald, they point out that – even though you are a very smart guy – this is a very dumb thing to do. We two friends, fighting, is exactly what our opponents around the world want to see,” said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a Thursday speech.
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He was, of course, talking about tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China that kicked in Tuesday. The Wall Street Journal said Tuesday that the tariff war risks “sinking the world into a new Great Depression.”
Trudeau has responded to the tariffs by implementing 25% tariffs against $155 billion of American products. Per an X post, that will start with $30 billion worth of goods immediately, and the remaining $125 billion in 21 days’ time.
As reports about concerns related to the tariffs poured in Wednesday – including reports about potential increases in car prices – the Associated Press reported that President Donald Trump granted a one-month exemption the tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada for U.S. automakers. However, that still leaves concerns about other things, including an expected increase in gas prices.
“Inflation is set to rise dramatically, all across your country,” said Trudeau in his Tuesday speech. He added that it also puts American jobs at risk and said the Trump administration has “chosen to launch a trade war that will, first and foremost, harm American families.”
According to Trudeau, there is “no justification or need whatsoever,” for the tariffs on Canada.
Trump has said that tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China are meant to prevent illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking into the U.S. A fact sheet issued by the White House, last month claimed that “there is also a growing presence of Mexican cartels operating fentanyl and nitazene synthesis labs in Canada.”
The New York Times reported in late January that “Canadian officials believe there were about 100 organized crime groups involved in fentanyl production in the country last year, a more than fourfold increase from 2022.” In that year, a report from a U.S commission found that Canada was not a known major source of fentanyl in the U.S.
“Last year, U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents intercepted about 19 kilograms of fentanyl at the northern border, compared with almost 9,600 kilograms at the border with Mexico, where cartels mass-produce the drug,” said The Times. According to the Trump administration, “last year’s northern border fentanyl seizures, though smaller than Mexico’s, could kill 9.5 million Americans due to the drug’s potency,” and “fentanyl seizures at the northern border in the first four months of this fiscal year are quickly closing in on what was seized the entirety of fiscal year 2022.”
Trudeau said that Canada still accounts for just 1% of the fentanyl that enters the U.S. This week, the Council on Foreign Relations also reported that “Canada plays virtually no role in the U.S. fentanyl influx, especially compared to the other countries,” and said the 1% figure is backed up by Canadian and U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency reports.
Even so, Canada recently implemented a $1.3 billion border plan and added other measures during a recent pause on the U.S. tariffs.
“We stepped up,” Trudeau said Tuesday. “We stuck to our word.”
In a Wednesday Truth Social post Trump said: “For anyone who is interested, I also told Governor Justin Trudeau of Canada that he largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies, which allowed tremendous amounts of Fentanyl, and Illegal Aliens, to pour into the United States. These Policies are responsible for the death of many people!”
Per the CFR, Trump administration claims that fentanyl deaths range anywhere from three hundred thousand per year to “tens of millions” of mortalities are not backed up by law enforcement and public health experts. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there have been more than 100,000 annual overdose deaths reported in the U.S. as fentanyl contributed to a spike. These deaths dropped steeply last year.
“Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped,” said Trump in another Wednesday Truth Social post. “He said that it’s gotten better, but I said, ‘That’s not good enough.’ The call ended in a ‘somewhat’ friendly manner! He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what’s going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power. Good luck Justin!”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said “the president does love tariffs,” this week. She said he believes they will “ultimately make America rich again – raising revenue, helping pay down debt, and bringing jobs back. It’s a whole-of-government approach: tax cuts, tariffs, regulation cuts, and a booming energy industry.”
However, as Audacy noted today in a piece about wisdom found in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, tariffs haven’t always paid off for the U.S. in the past. In an interview with Audacy station KCBS Radio, David Herzberg, a history professor at the University at Buffalo who researches the nature of U.S. drug policy, was also skeptical of the impact tariffs could have on fentanyl trafficking.
“I think, historically speaking, they have not been effective at anything but the very shortest of term disruptions of the supply chain,” said Herzberg. “And that’s because it’s going to be hard to inflict enough economic damage to really make it worth disrupting this incredibly profitable industry of selling drugs to the United States.”
Regarding Canada’s elections – Trudeau announced in January that he would resign as the leader of the country’s Liberal party, meaning that he is not expected to run in the next election.
“An official familiar with the matter said Parliament, which had been due to resume Jan. 27, will be suspended until March 24,” WCCO News Talk reported at the time. “The timing will allow for a Liberal Party leadership race. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about the matter publicly.”
Canada has a multi-step election process that includes the dissolution of parliament, nomination of candidates, campaigning and voting, followed by vote counting and then parliament resuming. Its last election was in September 2021.
“The Canada Elections Act provides for a general election to be held on a fixed date: the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election,” Elections Canada explained. “But the Act does not prevent a general election from being called earlier or later, as long as it is no later than five years after the previous election.”
While Canada’s Liberal party was headed towards defeat in the next election, Axios reported this week that the recent tariff kerfuffle has changed things. Now, Canadians have turned on the U.S. and are leaning towards their own liberal lawmakers more than they have in recent months.
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