When the Stanley Cup Final starts on Wednesday, the Colorado Avalanche will skate on home ice with fresh legs, boasting offensive firepower that averaged an NHL-best 4.6 goals scored per game in the playoffs. That's the good news. The bad news, however, is that their series opponent is a two-time defending champion, led by the reigning Conn Smythe winner between the pipes.
Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy could offset Colorado's vaunted offense in the best-of-seven title bout. Through 17 postseason games, the 27-year-old superstar has allowed 2.27 goals per game -- the NHL's second-best mark -- and in his past eight series-clinching victories, he's only given up two goals on 221 shots (.991 save percentage). The Avalanche lack a dependable netminder, and ESPN analyst Brian Boucher believes it's a major drawback.
"When push comes to shove and you break down every situation, both teams have a good power play. Both teams can kill penalties, score five-on-five, and know how to defend," Boucher explained to The Zach Gelb Show on Monday. "But, at the end of the day, the difference-maker will be in goal. I think Tampa wins this series, just based on the fact that they might catch Colorado a little rusty to start the series... That's a tough situation to be in...
"I expect Vasilevskiy to be a difference-maker in this series. And so much so, that I think he's going to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. They'll win it on home ice [in six]. It'll be a great series, don't get me wrong... Vasilevskiy is the best goaltender on Earth. When he decides he's going to make a difference, he's made the difference, more times than not in the last couple of seasons. No reason to bet against him. Goaltending is critical in the playoffs..."
Tampa Bay, which placed third in the Atlantic Division (110 points) this season, will visit Colorado for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals on Wednesday night at Ball Arena (8:00 ET puck-drop). According to FiveThirtyEight projections, the Lightning have a 38-percent chance to become the first team since the 1980s New York Islanders to hoist three consecutive Stanley Cups. If the Avalanche win, it'll be their second championship in team history and first since 2001.
The entire Stanley Cup Final conversation between Boucher and Gelb can be accessed in the audio player above.
You can follow The Zach Gelb Show on Twitter @ZachGelb and Tom Hanslin @TomHanslin.