When a brand-new band shows up at the local bar and overtakes the townies who've been playing there for years, it might rub some people the wrong way, but it'll also make those who were in need of a new sound happy. With Pac-12 programs Arizona and Utah joining the Big 12, college football fans can expect the conference's current crop of teams to face stiffer competition that'll make it that much harder to win.
Whether the injection of talent into a mediocre, yet relatively evenly-matched conference is a good thing remains up for debate. Of the 16 teams in the Big 12, nine reached bowl games last season, as TCU and BYU finished just a win shy of eligibility. Last season's additions of BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF wound up watering down the competition level, as they went a combined 8-29 in Big-12 play. College football is hoping that adding stronger mice to the cage will make survival of the fittest tougher. The departures of juggernauts Texas and Oklahoma -- which are SEC bound -- must be factored in, too.
At least for the 2024 season, Utah and Arizona will effectively replace those programs, with Oklahoma State and Kansas State also in the mix to challenge them. The Utes are an early frontrunner by virtue of getting seventh year Cam Rising -- who has 26 starts under his belt -- back for another campaign, after he missed all of last year with a torn ACL. Having the NCAA approve a waiver for not just him, but also tight end Brant Kuithe, should provide the program with enough offense to run the table.
Despite cycling through three different quarterbacks last season, Utah coach Kyle Whittingham still found a way to an 8-4 record. The Utes' ability to battle through many injuries at multiple positions speaks volumes about the team's depth and culture -- something that should allow them to find more success in a transition to a new conference. Utah's only tough matchup -- at least on paper -- will be against Oklahoma State on September 21. Luckily, they have three warmup games to prepare for it. With a 3-0 start and a tough road win over Mike Gundy's squad, Utah has a clear path to the Big 12 title game.
Meanwhile in Tucson, the Arizona football program faced offseason adversity with Jedd Fisch departing for Washington and Brent Brennan taking over. But luckily, stars Noah Fifita, Tetairoa McMillan, and Martell Irby, all decided to stay for another season. Brennan's retention of the core is a rarity in today's game, and it should allow the team to push for a College Football Playoff spot when the field expands to the 12-team format.
Fifita. the Pac-12 Freshman of the Year winner in 2023, projects to be better as a sophomore, and with Heisman potential. Brennan must keep his players away from reading the headlines and focused on one game at a time, as that seems to be the biggest threat to a derailed 2024. Favorable scheduling has enabled Arizona to avoid facing a gauntlet of a schedule. The Wildcats won't face Kansas, Kansas State, or Oklahoma. Instead, they'll get to host Houston and West Virginia. Arizona's toughest matchup will be against Utah, and the Utes will be seeking redemption after last year's 42-18 beatdown.
That September showdown could easily determine which of the two teams wins the conference. A Big 12 title game rematch remains on the table, but losing the head-to-head battle could be an instant eliminator if Arizona holds the same record as other teams. This is a critical year for the Wildcats, as they try to set the future foundation for the program. The heightened expectations await. Can they live up to the hype? All indications point toward a yes.
A Bounce-back for Malzahn
For the first time as a head coach, Gus Malzahn finished with a losing record. UCF still had a relatively successful first season in the Big 12, though, as they reached a bowl game, earned a statement victory over Oklahoma State, and nearly upset Oklahoma on the road. Expectations are still higher for Malzahn, who joined the program after reaching a modestly high, yet unsatisfactory ceiling with Auburn.
An upgrade at quarterback, with fifth-year senior KJ Jefferson transferring in from Arkansas, should allow the Knights to post a better record this season. Jefferson may be the key to UCF maximizing its potential and keeping them satisfied with Malzahn. Finding a way to replicate the 2022 production from Jefferson -- a year in which he racked up 3,288 yards and 33 touchdowns -- is the most important task at hand. Do that, and UCF definitely has a chance to push for a conference title. Don't, and they'll struggle to get back to .500.
There isn't one game on the schedule that doesn't appear winnable, and the toughest conference games are slated at home. The in-state matchup with a beatable Florida Gators squad figures to be lackluster, but it also represents an opportunity to come up with a crucial win in early October. Not overlooking inferior opponents -- something that killed them in a home loss to Baylor last year -- will be crucial too. But, UCF has all the tools to be the Big 12 biggest surprise if they can put it all together.
Buffs Drew a Tough Card
After losing six straight games to end the 2023 season and coming down to reality after ripping off three straight early wins to captivate college football fans, Deion Sanders endured a rollercoaster ride in his first year at Colorado.
On one hand, the team was competitive in all but two games, and improved by three wins from the year prior. But the flipside offers a more grim reality, since they finished an underwhelming 4-8 and failed to beat a bowl-eligible team. They did little to prove they're different from the late 2010s Buffaloes.
Theoretically, joining the Big 12 presented an opportunity to win more games and take on lesser talent. That may be the case long-term, but Colorado was dealt a really tough hand for the 2024 campaign. They'll host Utah, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, and then face Arizona, Texas Tech, and UCF on the road. The non-conference portion of the Buffaloes' schedule isn't exactly a cakewalk, either, as they'll take on on Big Ten foe Nebraska, Colorado State, and FCS super-achiever North Dakota State.
Of the aforementioned opponents, it isn't tough to pick out four or five likely losses for Colorado, and this doesn't account for their entire 2024 schedule. Sanders won't have a single easy game on the slate, although home games against Baylor and Cincinnati should be viewed as must-wins. He won't back down from hyping up his team at every opportunity. But, realistically, talking about College Football Playoff aspirations is an extreme eye-roller.
Having two of the game's best players, in Travis Hunter and Shadeur Sanders, should keep Colorado competitive in most games once again. The duo wasn't able to save its less-talented supporting cast in 2023, though, and it’s hard to envision them elevating the team to, say, eight wins. But the progress still can be measured in baby steps, considering how much of a rebuild this was and how difficult their schedule is.
With this in mind, a 6-6 or 7-5 finish would be another huge step in the right direction for Colorado. Although attainable with upgrades at a number of key spots, especially along the offensive line, it's impossible to predict how well the new group will gel under Sanders' stewardship. The program had a ton of attrition, but it's unclear if any of the new guys will be big enough upgrades.
Another 4-8 season feels very possible too, and it's put up or shut up time for the man who appears on every commercial starring as "Coach Prime." Record a couple signature victories while reaching a bowl game, and the fanbase will be satisfied with another step forward and remain optimistic about the future. Struggle, and everyone will have trouble taking the circus act seriously, while starting to question how much of a program changer he actually is.