For any bettor, there is nothing better than a bet that's exactly right. That doesn't mean getting a game right based on the spread or even hitting a multi-leg parlay. We're talking about predicting the exact score of a game, which is hard to do but comes with a huge profit. Just for fun, let's try an exact score prediction for the four NFL Divisional Round playoff games (with BetMGM odds).
Chiefs 23, Texans 17 (+12500)
Obviously, the Chiefs are going to find a way to win this game, no matter how ugly or too close for comfort the game might be. Given the way Houston's defense has played lately, the Chiefs are likely to settle for field goals more frequently than they'd like, which is how they end up with 23 points. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud will find some success against the Kansas City defense, especially after playing well against another good defensive team last week. The Texans will even have a chance to win the game late. But Steve Spagnuolo will work his magic late in the game and prevent the Texans from stealing a close game.
Lions 31, Commanders 17 (+15000)
This game isn't quite going to become the shootout that the over/under of 55.5 points might suggest. While we've seen Jayden Daniels work his magic late in games this season, this game isn't going to be close enough for him to shine. The bye week should benefit Detroit's defense, putting them in a position to slow down the Washington offense and prevent a shootout. On the other side, the Lions will do what they do offensively, although with a lead most of the game, Dan Campbell will hold a little back for the NFC Championship Game. Nevertheless, Detroit will win comfortably and cover the spread.
Rams 16, Eagles 13 (+15000)
This game is going to get ugly and will look nothing like the 37-20 win the Eagles had over the Rams in November. It's going to be cold and snowy in Philadelphia on Sunday, which will slow down both teams. Also, both the Eagles and Rams have been exceptional defensively over the last month. Following his unconvincing performance last week, the Eagles have to be at least a little concerned about Jalen Hurts. Watching the film of the Rams defensively against the Vikings last week isn't going to inspire confidence either. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford will lean on some of his playoff experience and find a way to get the ball to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, even against a talented Philly secondary. That will be enough for the Rams to grab a late field goal and pull off the surprise upset, giving him a homecoming game in Detroit next week.
Bills 20, Ravens 17 (+12500)
No matter how many years he's spent in Baltimore, Miami native Lamar Jackson is going to be bothered by the cold weather in Buffalo. Luckily, the Ravens still have Derrick Henry and Jackson's legs to carry them. But with a limited passing game, this won't be a high-scoring game. The Ravens could also be hurt by a missed field goal or two by Justin Tucker, who we know isn't having a great year. On the other side, Baltimore's defense will put up plenty of resistance, but Josh Allen will make some MVP-level plays to help Buffalo score a few touchdowns. A missed Tyler Bass PAT will put the Bills at 20, not 21 points, opening the door for a late game-tying field goal. But the Buffalo defense will come up big against Jackson in the closing minutes to secure the win.
