In corporate America, groupthink has allowed employees to stay in the good graces of their bosses by agreeing with them. While nodding and saying yes can often be an effective strategy to keep coworkers pleased, it can prevent corporations from implementing worthwhile changes. J.J. McCarthy's drastic climb up NFL Draft boards, which figures to leave other stud prospects at the top battling for positioning, is showing how hype blown out of proportion can make the myth greater than the reality.
In 40 career games at Michigan, McCarthy attempted 30 passes or more just six times, and his completion percentage in the three games he achieved the aforementioned feat in 2023 was 69.3-percent, compared to 74.2-percent on the season. Not a substantial difference, but fans and analysts are allowed to nitpick stats with a handful of teams reportedly attempting to trade into a top-five pick to select him.
To his credit, McCarthy did protect the ball -- he threw just four interceptions last year -- and also played a sizable role in the team's win over Washington in the CFP championship. The selection bias regarding his positive and negative qualities, as well as the power of an overwhelming public opinion favoring him now, should be accounted for, too.
McCarthy was rarely depended on to win games. His best move was handing the football off to the Big Ten's second-leading rusher in Blake Corum, whose workload in the Wolverines offense was so massive, that he had just 29 fewer rushing attempts than McCarthy had passing attempts. It was a run-first team that rode the hot hand of Corum and a stalwart offensive line that featured All-Big Ten center Drake Nugent, among others. Michigan's defense also thrived.
Even in a world where attributes and intangibles can outweigh production and perceived role in a program's success, it remains tough to see how McCarthy has become so well liked by those in the NFL. He did put on a show at his pro day, as his athleticism and arm strength were on full display. But this shouldn't have been enough to launch McCarthy all the way up NFL Draft boards, to the point where there's speculation of the Commanders taking him No. 2 overall.
Longtime veteran Josh McCown -- now the Vikings' quarterback coach under Kevin O'Connell -- was rumored to be impressed by McCarthy. The NFL minds analyzing his draft stock indicate McCown wasn't the only one moved, either. Lost in the discussion is Oregon prospect Bo Nix, who had more than double the number of passing touchdowns in 2023. Nix and Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr. weren't perfect, but their level of on-field production far outmatched McCarthy's.
Oregon and Washington were premier programs, as well, but neither had the same prestige, flash, or talent as Michigan. As time passes and the NFL Draft draws closer, teams are evidently placing a greater emphasis on what they're seeing on the field, as opposed to what already happened during gamedays. While the tape might tell a whole different tale, the support from a respected head coach like Jim Harbaugh has only helped McCarthy.
Since Harbaugh knows McCarthy's limitations rather well -- he coached him at Michigan, after all -- maybe he's trying to force the Raiders or Broncos to surrender a king's ransom, considering he'll be playing them twice a year as the Chargers' new head coach. Most likely, however, Harbaugh's looking to reaffirm the consensus that his former quarterback is the real deal.
Can McCarthy elevate his game in the NFL? Is he capable of being someone who commands game-winning drives? Is it too much to ask him to throw the ball more? The answer to all three of these questions is yet to be determined, but they'll dictate whether or not he can find success.
This isn't the first time NFL quarterback prospects with issues in college have generated some buzz. Just ask Mitchell Trubisky and Zach Wilson, who were taken No. 2 overall as a result of blowing teams away. Trubisky's situation was particularly unique as a one-year starter who was selected 10 spots ahead of three-time Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes.
There's no exact science to evaluating prospects, which is why such a large discrepancy exists between mock drafts and what actually transpires. But no matter how one weighs the factors involved here -- the upside, the progress made in school, and the skillset -- McCarthy doesn't fit the bill of a high first-round draft pick.
In a sport where seeing is believing, he can never say he singlehandedly won Michigan games, which is the definitive bottom line. With this being said, he's done just enough to wow scouts and executives during the pre-draft process, while figuring out a way to leverage the current system to his advantage.
In the same way that employees agree with one another to develop an affable reputation, NFL executives have reached the same conclusion, as a result of one popular opinion largely drowning out evidence that suggests otherwise.