Much like courting a romantic partner with several red flags, Panthers owner David Tepper's stubbornly aberrant behavior has made his organization a less desirable option for potential head coaching candidates. So much so, the old cliche about a "home run hire" doesn't do justice, when evaluating how lucky they were to land an up-and-comer in Dave Canales.
While Carolina's opening was still one of eight vacancies in the current cycle, the lack of stability and trust from the front office -- something that's caused the in-season firings of two head coaches in as many years – has undeniably steered many of the top candidates away. Tepper needed a modified wish list to determine who was going to lead his franchise in 2024 and beyond.
Rather than interviewing the typical cast of characters, which included Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, recently hired Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh, and former Titans leader Mike Vrabel, Tepper had no choice but to seek out the under-the-radar options. Hiring a first-time coach was always his best bet. Those candidates prioritized an opportunity above all else, plus the candidates with leverage wouldn't have come close to Tepper because of his reputation and perceived lack of support.
Speculating that Canales, the now-former Buccaneers offensive coordinator, could be the next DeMeco Ryans would be foolish. But his lower profile and high upside with a lousy franchise does make him similar to Ryans and a few other recent hires. Carolina is hoping Canales' influence will resemble Kevin Stefanski's with the Browns and Doug Pederson's with the Jags. A couple of offensive gurus who breathed life back into the those teams.
Pederson rebounded a Jags organization coming off a hellish 3-13 campaign that saw Urban Meyer fired after 13 games for many off-the-field distractions and hindering the development of stud rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Stefanski mopped up a mess in Cleveland that saw Freddie Kitchens go one-and-done as coach in 2019, and then led the Browns to a playoff appearance for the first time in 17 years. Both coaches brought lousy organizations back to respectable levels. The Panthers are hoping Canales can do the same.
The overlaps between conditions that saw Pederson and Stefanski come to the rescue, and the circumstances leading to Canales' new opportunity with Carolina, aren't the only similarities presenting reason for optimism. Up until that point, Stefanski spent the majority of his coaching career under longtime head coach Mike Zimmer, and Canales worked his way up under the tutelage of Pete Carroll with the Seahawks before spending a campaign with the Bucs. Spending over a decade with a winning team also helps when considering the type of culture they became accustomed to being around.
In the same way uncool nerds need to hang around muscled-up jocks just to be considered popular, exposure to a winning way of business provided the blueprint for how to build a foundation of their own. A head coach's ability to motivate and manage people is an aspect of the job often excluded from the conversation, and losing franchises are smart to seek out people who played an integral role in winning ones.
Then there's the innovative, offensive-minded component. Carolina's success hinges upon them being able to build up former top-overall pick Bryce Young. Franchise stability is paramount here, as they've gone through six head coaches (including interim ones) and six quarterbacks since their last winning season in 2017.
This is where the comparison to Pederson's impact on Lawrence comes into play. Not only does Canales provide a much-needed clean slate for Young -- who had a similarly nightmarish two-win rookie season -- but he also has an impressive recent track record of revitalizing struggling quarterbacks.
Let's also not forget what he did with Geno Smith in 2022 as the Seahawks quarterbacks coach. That impressive campaign led to him getting the Bucs coordinator job in the first place, and he helped get Baker Mayfield's career back on track this year. While Smith and Mayfield were more on the veteran side, Canales helped them conquer mental hurdles that saw them descend from once high draft choices to designated clipboard carriers. It's clear that Canales understands how to alleviate pressures of playing quarterback, and he has a fantastic track record to prove it.
Was Canales' ascension from position coach to offensive coordinator to NFL head coach too fast? One could argue that the extremely limited coordinator experience is a red flag. By that metric, though Dan Campbell and Zac Taylor, two of the league's best head coaches, would've never been given a chance. The same can be said for Antonio Pierce, who went 5-4 in his interim role with the Raiders.
There isn't an exact science or a factory for acquiring a new head coach. But if there was a coach to gamble on, Canales has the background, personality, and chops to convert the Panthers from losers to bona fide contenders.