Wednesday's non-tender deadline in MLB wasn't quite as dramatic as some thought it could be but there were 59 players thrown into the free agent pool and that is an MLB record for the non-tender deadline. As it turns out, there were a few players who might be good fits for the St. Louis Cardinals in that group of new free agents.
Here is a breakdown of those who could provide the most help as the Cards search for offensive firepower (in alphabetical order):
David Dahl, OF
Dahl, who will be 27 on Opening Day 2021, would be an intriguing option for the Cardinals because of his age and his well-rounded game. According to Statcast information available at baseballsavant.com Dahl is a solidly above average defender, when healthy. In 2019 he played all three outfield positions, including 40 games in CF, and ended up in the top 26% of Major League outfielders in Outs Above Average. Dahl also ranked in the top 24% of MLB in sprint speed and was also above average in Outfielder Jump, a metric that measures reaction time for outfielders.
Oh, and Dahl can hit. From 2017-2019 he hit .297 with an .867 OPS in 240 Major League games which is about 11% above league average when ballpark factor (Coors Field) is taken into account. Yes, Dahl has the dreaded "Coors Field Home/Road Split" working against him but Mike Petriello from MLB.com wrote recently about how that's really not a concern for players once they leave Colorado, using the examples of Matt Holliday (who left COL for STL) and DJ Lemahieu. Dahl's batted ball data isn't overly impressive with his average exit velocity ranking below MLB average but he does barrel the ball up and his hard hit rate ranks a little better than the average exit velo.
Keep in mind that Dahl struggled badly in 2020 (.470 OPS) but he only played 24 games and he had a shoulder injury that required surgery which could explain the poor performance. Dahl was projected to earn less than $3 million in arbitration so why did Colorado let him go and why didn't anyone offer up ANYTHING in a trade to get him? Well, it's probably the injuries along with the batted ball data referenced above. Not just the shoulder last year but he's had injuries almost every season he's been in the Majors. His durability is a legitimate question. In 5 years he's played in just 264 games. That said, he's a real upside play with some team control beyond 2021. He is an athletic player who can handle some duty in CF and has slugged .515 against right handed pitching as a Major Leaguer. That power against RHP would be a real plus for the Cardinals.
Eddie Rosario, OF
Rosario, who will be playing his age 29 season in 2021, is interesting because of the consistency of his production. He's been pretty much the same player every year since 2017 and the numbers have been consistently good. From 2017-2020 he's posted an .810 OPS (14% above MLB average) with consistent power. Rosario hit 83 HR over three seasons (2017-2019) and hit 13 HR in just 57 games in 2020 as well. There's more to his power than just HR - Rosario also averaged around 30 doubles a year from 2017-2019.
The knock on Rosario as a hitter is that he doesn't walk much so typically his OBP is lower than teams would like despite the fact that he's a career .277 hitter. He offsets that lack of patience by putting the ball in play, ranking in the top 15% in Strikeout Percentage in 2019 (meaning he struck out less than 85% of Major Leaguers). He also doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, sitting at or below MLB average over the last four years.
He is not a good outfielder, however, despite having above average speed. He has ranked in the bottom 20% in Outs Above Average among MLB OF in 3 of the last 4 seasons and has had problems with his jumps the last couple of years. That, combined with a projected arbitration salary of $9.5 million, would be why the Twins parted way with a guy who has been a good hitter for them for the last four seasons. Rosario is better against RHP than against LHP so if he's used as a part-time player rather than an everyday player a team could get the bulk of his production without worrying about the defense if he were an everyday player. That said, given his track record, he will certainly be looking for an everyday position as he sorts through offers.
Danny Santana, UTL
Santana, who will be in his age 30 season in 2021, is a super interesting player but he comes with risk. He came up with the Twins in 2014 as a well regarded SS prospect and had a really nice rookie season (.319 AVG, .824 OPS, 41 XBH, 21 SB in 101 games) but then essentially fell off the face of the earth until 2019. In 2019 he exploded with the Rangers as an everyday utility man hitting .283 with 23 doubles, 28 HR, 81 RBI and 21 SB in 130 games while getting time at all four IF positions and all three OF positions. In other words, Santana can play anywhere on the field except catcher even if he's not particularly great at any one position. He is also a switch hitter who had no R/L split in 2019, producing equally from both sides of the plate. His Statcast numbers in 2019 were outstanding - he ranked in the top 11% in MLB in Exit Velocity, the top 24% in Hard Hit rate and in the top 30% in Sprint Speed.
So what's the knock on Satana? Well, inconsistency. He essentially disappeared from the Majors as an impactful player from 2015-2018 and he struggled in 2020 as well (though his batted ball data, especially Exit Velocity, was still strong). His best asset as a defender is his versatility and speed but he is not seen as a plus defender at any particular position. The Rangers used him mostly at 1B and CF in 2019 but he would have to fit in elsewhere as well to make sense for the Cardinals. He was only projected to earn $3.5 million in arbitration before he was non-tendered so Santana clearly will not be very expensive for 2021.
Kyle Schwarber, OF-DH
Schwarber, who will be playing his age 28 season in 2021, has the type of power bat Cardinals fans would love to add but he is a poor defender who is probably best served as a DH moving forward. So, if there is a DH in the NL in 2021 he'd make a lot of sense for the Cardinals. If not, this may not be a good fit with the way Cardinals value team defense.
Schwarber is a lot like another free agent, Joc Pederson. They're both low batting average hitters who walk a lot and hit a ton of HR. Schwarber hit 94 home runs from 2017-2019, including a 38 HR season in 2019, so in a full season there is no doubt he is a 30+ HR guy. He hits the ball very hard - his average Exit Velocity was in the top 1% percent - yes, that's a one - in MLB in 2019 and it was in the top 5% in MLB even though he really struggled to put up numbers in 2020. In fact, Schwarber's Exit Velocity and Hard Hit rate were both excellent in 2020 so why was he so unproductive (.188 AVG, .701 OPS)??? It's simple - he hit too many ground balls in 2020. From 2017-2019 his ground ball rate was around 40% and that jumped to 51% in 2020. If he just starts hitting the ball in the air like he did prior to 2020 he'll produce.
I mentioned his poor defense before so here is the data - from 2017-2020 he has ranked in the bottom 4% of MLB OF in Outs Above Average in EACH SEASON. There have been no outliers, no seasons where he was passable. Even though he's about average in Sprint Speed he gets terrible jumps and takes bad angles. Schwarber actually has a strong arm but that's not really helpful if you're bad at chasing down fly balls or cutting balls off in the gap. He is a DH for any team that values defense. He was projected to earn around $8 million in arbitration before being non-tendered so it seems all but certain he'll make a good bit less than that in 2021 since nobody was willing to trade for him before the non-tender deadline.