Five days ago I wrote a piece outlining what the Cardinals' situation was at that moment in time and it wasn't the prettiest of pictures. They were 11 games behind Milwaukee on that day and they were 7 1/2 games behind the Padres for the second Wild Card spot with three other teams in between (CIN, ATL, NYM).
Here we are less than a week later and the circumstances have changed a bit:
- 10 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central
- 4 1/2 games behind the Padres with only the Reds in between
That's the kind of thing that can happen when you rip off a 6-game winning streak as part of winning 8 of the last 9. Over the last 9 games the Cardinals have done what they needed to do - they beat up on the Royals and Pirates to improve their spot in the standings. They need to keep doing that in the 7 games against the Pirates and 2 games against the Tigers that follow this week's home series against the Brewers.
They also need to beat the Brewers.
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This week's series can't truly get the Cardinals all the way back in the division race but if they get swept it could definitely end those chances. A sweep at the hands of the Brewers would put them 13 games back with 6 weeks to play which means that even if they won all 10 games against the Brewers in September they'd STILL be 3 games back and needing help.
A sweep in the Cards' favor would bring them to within 7 games of the division lead which would certainly be much more doable with those 10 games in September.
Taking 2-of-3 this week might not seem like a really big deal - they'd only make up 1 game in the standings after all - but to me that would be a huge victory when you consider how well the Brewers have been playing and when you look at the pitching matchups.
Adam Wainwright vs. Corbin Burnes
Jack Flaherty vs. Freddy Peralta
TBA (probably Miles Mikolas) vs. Brandon Woodruff
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Sure, the Cardinals have the best starters they have lined up but the Brewers' starters rank 2-3-4 in all of Major League Baseball in ERA this season so getting 2 wins in the series would actually be a pretty good accomplishment.
Even though the Cardinals don't have as many head-to-head opportunities against their Wild Card competition, in my eyes that's the more realistic chase. The Reds are only 2 games ahead of the Cards and the two still have 6 games left head-to-head. Plus, the Padres are scuffling a bit. They just got Fernando Tatis, Jr. back from the IL but Yu Darvish just went on the IL and the Padres' rotation is a bit tattered at the moment. Plus, the Padres have a really tough schedule the rest of the way (10 games against SF, 9 games against LAD plus series against the Cardinals, Phillies, Braves and Astros) so they're within reach.
The Padres are currently on a 90-win pace and to get to 90 wins the Cards would have to go 29-16 the rest of the way which is a .644 clip, a 104-win pace.
Still a lot to ask but a lot less than we were looking at just 5 days ago. That's what winning streaks can do for you.
We're still not looking at a playoff spot being likely for the Cardinals - their playoff odds according to Fangraphs have gone from a 1.3% chance to a 5.8% chance in less than a week - but it is more likely now than it was 5 days ago.
A series win against the Brewers would be a good way to start but they'll also need to have a stretch after the Brewers (7 vs PIT, 2 vs DET) like the one that they're on right now.
If those things happen then we might have some intrigue heading into September...but these three games against Milwaukee need to be handled first.
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