Well, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic sure got Cardinals fans buzzing last night didn’t he?
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Here's the key part from his story...
"The Cardinals are in discussions with the Rockies about a deal that would bring the five-time All-Star third baseman to St. Louis, according to major-league sources. No deal appears close, and the other players who might be involved are not known."
Rosenthal also mentioned that the Rockies would be willing to take money back in the form of a veteran's contract in addition to prospects.
Okay, so is this at all realistic?
Maybe.
In the past I've always actively (heavily) downplayed the possibility of Arenado winding up with the Cardinals because there were some massive hurdles that I just didn't see getting cleared:
- Arenado's contract ($199 million remaining over the next 6 years)
- Arenado's ability to opt out of the deal after 2021
- Arenado's no-trade clause, he has to approve any trade
- What was believed to be a high asking price with regard to prospects on the Rockies end
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Well, thanks to the damage COVID has done since last spring - and the damage done to the relationship between Arenado and the Rockies - some of those things may have changed.
Arenado still has 6 years and $199 million left on his deal but the Rockies may have more motivation now to eat some of that money to get rid of the bulk of it. If they can get rid of, say, $150-160 million of that and still get some cheap, young players in return that could be viewed as a win from their perspective. It's important to remember that Trevor Story is a free agent after 2021 and if the Rockies want to try to lock him up before he hits the open market they're probably going to need to move Arenado first. They can't risk having to carry both of those deals.
It's also important to include the fact that Arenado is extremely unhappy with Rockies management. When he signed his long term deal with them he says it came with the understanding that they team would continue to try to win. Well, let's just say that hasn't happened. If that unhappiness leads Arenado to make a concession on his opt out then trading for him could make more sense.
Let's also keep in mind how much the trade market has changed in COVID times. Star players with big contracts are not commanding the kind of prospect return they used to. The Padres didn't have to give up any of their Top 10 prospects to get Yu Darvish from the Cubs and the prospects they did give up were 18-20 years old and years away from reaching the Majors. The Mets didn't have to trade their most valued prospects to get Francisco Lindor AND high-end starter Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland because they took on the money.
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John Mozeliak repeated today, during a Zoom conference announcing the signing of Adam Wainwright, that the Cardinals still expect their payroll to be lower in 2021 than it was projected to be in 2020 before COVID hit. So short term the money on a potential Arenado deal is going to have to be offset somehow with the Rockies either taking on a veteran contract (or two), including cash in the deal or some combination of the two. The more of the money the Rockies would be willing to retain the more they could command in prospect value based on the way deals have been going in MLB this offseason.
The Cardinals have around $60 million coming off the books after 2021 with the contracts of Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Martinez and Andrew Miller expiring. That leaves plenty of room for Arenado's money in 2022 and beyond but the money will be tight this year. As Rosenthal mentioned, the Rockies might take on one of those expiring contracts for 2021 to make the move work for the Cardinals but that's also not a straightforward proposition. Carpenter ($18.5 million) and Fowler ($16.5 million) would save the Cards the most money if they were included but both players have no-trade clauses that would have to be dealt with. Martinez ($11.7 million plus a potential $500,000 buyout on next year's option) doesn't have a no-trade clause but he does have a $1 million assignment bonus due if he's traded. Martinez could be attractive to the Rockies because if he comes in and pitches well they could turn around and flip him in-season for more prospects.
The Cardinals do match up well with the Rockies, who appear to need a catcher (Andrew Knizner?) and outfield help (Cards have a lot of them) on top of their ever-present need for more pitching (which the Cardinals always have).
I wouldn't say that an Arenado-to-St. Louis trade is likely at this point but it sure does seem more likely than it did before Arenado lost faith in his team and before COVID changed the landscape, putting teams like the Rockies into an even bigger crunch than they'd otherwise be in.
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