Meteorologist Dave Murray released his annual fall forecast on his Facebook. Read some excerpts:
"These are many of the factors that come into play and must be looked at all the time for these seasonal forecasts… So let's get to the details… The Fall season in STL.
The keys to the Fall season...La Nina continues to be the main feature…still hanging around well into its third year. It is a feature for the Fall…but not thinking it is a huge feature. But could once again be a big feature for the Winter season...still too many questions...at least with my Winter ideas. Remember we never...never...just say…”oh, it is a La Nina or El Nino year...so it means only one idea...game over” No they are all different...never broad-brush any ideas when it comes to weather…especially long-term ideas.
SEPTEMBER:
September Facts:
September 1st…sunrise: 6:30…sunset: 7:31
September 30th..sunrise:6:56…sunset: 6:46
Average high and low: 81.0/60.0
Average rainfall: 2.96”
The major factors:
*** Looking like a pretty nice September...not too hot...not too cold...temperatures just right...day and night.
*** There will be a continuation of the roller coaster pattern...two chilly surges but nothing extreme and some warm weather but also nothing extreme.
*** When all is done with September temperatures will average out near to just a touch above average...a nice month for temps...day and night…the gradual cool down gets going.
*** Records...I don’t see any high temperature records and I don’t see any overnight records...I don’t see any frost or freeze concerns...Let’s keep those home gardens going.
*** What about moisture...September typically is a dry month
*** Rainfall will be above average. It’s been a wild growing season for the farmer’s in our area…and above average rain in September is not great news as the harvest season kicks into high gear.
*** Area rivers will be okay…but running high.
SEPTEMBER SIGNS
* BLACK AND WHITE GARDEN SPIDERS ARE COMMON AROUND THE HOME
* LOOK FOR PUFFBALLS AND OTHER FALL MUSHROOMS
* LISTEN FOR MIGRATING BIRDS IN THE EVENING HOURS.
OCTOBER:
October Facts:
October 1st…sunrise: 6:57…sunset: 6:44
October 31st...sunrise: 7:27…sunset: 6:02
Average high and low: 69.2/49.1
Average rainfall: 3.15”
The major factors:
*** I love the month of October...typically a wonderful month around the region...the heat and humidity of Summer is now a thing of the past....however temperature is going to be a big deal this month.
*** This October...temperatures will stay above average..both day and night.
*** Of course there will be some cool spells as the days get shorter and the nights get longer…the cool down has to happen.
*** Thinking the temperatures...day and night will average out above average...this will be a little weird for October in St. Louis.
*** Records...great question...certainly no record high temperatures...and with my trend of above average temperatures day and night…we should not see any overnight records either…this is not record breaking.
*** We typically turn colder by the end of October… and though it is hard to break that trend and idea…just don’t think we see a lot of cool to cold weather…even by the end of the month.
*** Frost or a freeze is alway possible…mid to late month…but that action will be limited this October.
*** Rainfall for this October... typically a dry month...and thinking this October will also be dry...with rainfall amounts about average.
*** The rivers...large and small should be fine...staying in check...that is always good news…especially going in the Winter.
*** Late in October we have to consider the second season of the thunderstorm pattern..and with the above average temperatures I’m forecasting…the second season should be a play late in the month…so the thunderstorm season is not over.
*** The fall colors peak the last weekend of October…into mid November...the season should be fair…with all the Spring and Summer rains…the negative is the waves of big heat over the Summer…so a mixed bag with the Fall colors.
OCTOBER SIGNS
* PERSIMMONS START TO RIPEN
* LOOK FOR SPIDERS BALLOONING ON GOSSAMERS ON CLEAR, WINDY DAYS
* THE JUNCOS(BIRDS) ARRIVE FROM CANADA
NOVEMBER:
November Facts:
November 1st…sunrise: 6:28…sunset: 5:01
November 31st...sunrise:6:59…sunset: 4:40
Average high and low: 55.1/37.4
Average rainfall: 3.42”
Average snowfall: 0.9”
The major factors:
*** Interesting month on the way as we try to step down from mild weather to Winter cold…November is typically a transition month with that process.
*** The catch… this November…is there will be a pool of rather cold air to our north and northeast…centered on the Great Lakes with the west remaining on the warm side…you guessed it…leaving us on the borderline…always fun for forecasting…short and long term.
*** So see-saw is the word for our temperatures this month…but thinking the cold air has real trouble working down over the middle of the nation…walking a thin line…but what to keep temperatures near to slightly above average for this November.
*** I don’t see any records...hot or cold.
*** One or two frost and freezes late night/early morning anytime during this month of November… with that said...the coldest air will stay to our north and northeast.
*** Moisture will be above average for the month...a fair share of rain and in November that is wet as the Winter season starts to take over with an active storm track...think more large scale storms rather than thunderstorms…November rains can be all day events.
*** What about the second season of thunderstorms...it's always something that I like to keep on the table...especially the first 10 days of the month…but the second season quickly fades away.
*** It is November...and of course the snow bunnies start to chatter...what about snow...I don’t see any large storm systems that would bring snow...we may see a touch of light snow and flurries late month…but nothing to get all excited about.
NOVEMBER SIGNS
* BIRDS BEGIN GATHERING AT THE FEEDERS
* SCAN THE LEAFLESS TREES FOR PAPER NEST OF THE BALD-FACED HORNETS
* WOODCHUCKS ARE ASLEEP IN UNDERGROUND NESTS
Enjoy the Fall season...we all know it will fly by...it is the season that is very pretty and pleasant most of the time in STL...but it is also the season that we step down into the next season...that of course is Winter...working on some of those ideas now...you all know I like to give the weather a chance and patterns do start to set up especially in October with solid clues about the Winter season. So enjoy the Fall season, the changing tree colors and pumpkin time and football...my Winter forecast will be out mid to late November."