ST. LOUIS (KMOX) - The Fall season has been pretty good this year, actually very nice, certainly a roller coaster ride at times, but overall temperatures were rather mild most of the three-month period. Rainfall was either feast or famine, either drought or way too much rain, especially with that two-day event on Nov. 4-5.
Yes, the overall temperature has been cooling down, day and night, and it has too with the shorter days.
We all know Winter is on the way.
The Winter Forecast is always the king of the hill, the most interesting and always the toughest seasonal forecast. So there may be great glories ahead but there are also the possibilities of great busts too. No one said this would be easy.
There are several keys to the Winter forecast this season...that’s always fun and no question this is a big time challenge...but that is always true with my long range forecasts.
All the chatter is about the developing La Nina, a cooling of the waters in the Pacific.
Now, tthe overall large scale has a La Nina base, but thinking it is rather weak, at times may be very hard to find.
La Nina and El Nino and everything in-between are very important in long range forecasting because it is all about ocean temperatures. You may be saying 'who cares, that is not St. Louis or the middle of the nation'. Well, the oceans, which makes up 70 percent of the Earth’s surface, are the true weather machine around the globe.
Again, as I have said many, many times, don’t get sucked into the broad-brush of the La Nina or El Nino game, not all are the same, no matter how much certain people in meteorology and climate want to make the cause and effect, always the same, don’t put all your eggs in one basket, that’s not weather forecasting.
There are other items we have to keep in mind, there are about 20 factors that I look at and study when putting these long-range forecasts together… And in my book, they all have some weight in the final forecast and this is just not a quick look, this is a process that goes on every day. Weather is my life.
On to the factors that are in play… Here’s a short list...can’t give all my trade secrets away:).
1. The analogs...looking back at past weather and then moving forward to compare what's going on in our atmosphere now… The analogs are one of the most important things in my long range forecast. There does appear to be a link between Gulf of Mexico hurricanes and the national Winter season…Years of interest… 1915-16, 1950-51, 1979-80, 1985-86, and 2020-21.
Why do I use analogs…From Ziggy Marley…”Don’t know your past, don’t know your future”
2. The solar cycle… The sun is wide awake…a strong cycle will be in play all Winter long…that should play some part in the global weather patterns.
3. World wide volcanoes… Not just the activity but the locations...critical in a long range forecast….volcanoes continue to be active.
There are a number of other features that I look at when it comes to the atmosphere and the oceans...without getting into too much detail...here are some of the items, and their abbreviations…Google to your heart's content:)
These are ocean related:
1. El nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
2. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
3, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
4. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
These are atmospheric related:
1. West Pacific Oscillation (WPO)
2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA)
3. Arctic Oscillation (AO)
4. Scandinavia (SCAND)
Wind related:
1. Quasi-Biennial (QBO)
Solar related:.
1. Solar Flux and geomagnetic (Ap)
The most important:
1. A La Nina Winter…lots of questions on how strong and what form…thinking much of the Winter will be neutral or a very weak La Nina…fading by late Winter…may not be a huge factor.
2. There appears to be a correlation in the hurricane season and the upcoming Winter…now it is not a broad brush…the correlation involves late season activity and what that means for the Winter forecast (see details in the actual forecast).
3. One or two strato-warming events should take place this Winter.
4. The MEI, which takes into account, ocean and atmospheric variables is rather weak when looking at the entire global ocean patterns.
5. The ONI, the Oceanic Nino Index is very strong with global patterns…a warm sign.
6. Two very active flows in the jet stream...the northern jet with the cold air source and the southern jet with the moisture. Always the key in the STL area… When and where they link… Fun!.
7. The (QBO)...The Quasi-biennial Oscillation Index. It looks positive for the Winter. This is one of the amazing features in our atmosphere. Not dealing with the ocean’s here...this is an area above the equator...in the stratosphere, where strong, zonal winds blow in a continuous circuit around the Earth. These winds go wild and fun things can happen.
8. The NAO is trending negative.
9. Watching a cold PDO.
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Least important… But important:
1. Tropical North Atlantic (TNA)
2. The eastern pacific oscillation (EPO)
3. Pacific North American (PNA)
4. Western and Eastern Pacific Oscillation (WPO)(EPO)
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Enough of all that…The Winter season in STL.
DECEMBER (2024):
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December Facts:
Dec. 1st…sunrise: 7:00…sunset: 4:40
Dec. 31st...sunrise: 7:19…sunset: 4:50
Average high and low: 44.5/28.5…Records: 76(2021)/-16(1989)
Average rainfall: 2.50”
Average snowfall: 3.2”
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DECEMBER DATES:
The Full Moon…Dec. 15th…The full Cold moon
The Winter Solstice…Dec. 21st
Christmas Day…Dec. 25th
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The major factors:
*** December…I’m going to walk way out on a limb here…way out…that should get your interest. A neutral La Nina and late-season hurricane action are pushing me out on that limb. This will either be great or crash and burn.
*** Like the two months of Fall…they were mild to warm…we will continue to see some wild swings in temps…day and night. Much of the month Winter will be on hold.
*** There is going to be lots of cold weather over much of Alaska and much of Canada… and with a big developing snowpack…this becomes the start of the highway of cold times.
*** I want to bring a cold shot in early December and then again late December…let’s think after the 20th…will this be a one and done cold shot…that is the question.
*** Thinking when we add the month up...temperatures will be above average…even with a late month cold shot…if we don’t get that shot temps could be well above average.
*** How about records...December records are intense...again not expecting huge cold...so no records…highs or lows
*** Moisture will be interesting… We always play with the atmospheric battle of the northern and the southern storm tracks...the northern track...the Alberta clipper flow and the southern track brings the tricky southwest storms… both flows in play but I don’t see big time punches from either flow.
*** So my thinking is rainfall and snowfall will be below average when looking at the entire month.
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The Christmas forecast
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Of course this is the big one...another time to go way, way out on a limb and try to forecast a one day event… A tough thing to do in a long range forecast...but as we all know...that has never stopped me… Yes the limb can break off at any time (seems to be a concept this December)… but that's the challenge in true forecasting. Mild temps certainly in play but thinking of a cold air release late in the month…snow bunnies you sense where I’m heading...drum roll please...this Christmas...2024…I’m expecting a WHITE Christmas in St. Louis...man, I can't believe I said that!
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Things to look for in December:
***the great horned owls begin courting
***check out the sky--easy to spot the winter constellation... orion
*** the bald eagles start to arrive in good numbers
JANUARY(2025):
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January Facts:
January 1st…sunrise: 7:19…sunset: 4:51
January 31st...sunrise: 7:08…sunset: 5:22
Average high and low: 40.4/23.8 Records: 77(1950)/-22(1884)
Average rainfall: 2.59”
Average snowfall: 5.7”
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JANUARY DATES:
New Years Day…Jan. 1st
The Full Moon…Jan. 13th…the full wolf moon
Martin Luther King Day…Jan. 20th
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The major factors:
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*** The key…a huge battle is setting up for the last two months of Winter…wicked cold air over Canada and right along our northern states and Winter mild air over the bulk of the nation…interesting??
*** We should start the New Year off with a cold spell (if my December ideas come true) but this is not going to be a Winter month. A weak La Nina in play but not very impressed with it.
*** Could the late December cold snap be a one and done event…certainly thinking that is true in January.
*** Temperature will swing back and forth…typical STL…but thinking the bulk of the month will not feel like hard core Winter…however…there should be one cold intrusion coming our way from Canada.
*** As a result, I’m thinking temperatures...will end up to be above average…could be well above average…as the deep cold stays in Canada, the Great Lakes and the northeast.
*** How about the January thaw…well since I’m expecting above average temperatures…have to call for no January Thaw…the bulk of the month…the thaw.
*** As for records...again the powerful cold will be to our north and northeast and records in the heart of Winter are intense…January records will be hard to come by.
*** The core storm track for the first two weeks will be well to our north…keeping moisture and the cold air away….anything we see, should mainly be rain…however…with that one intrusion of cold air from the north and a storm system moving out of the Texas Panhandle, leading the way for the cold…it's a one shot deal for the snow bunnies…let's think mid to late month.
*** So one solid shot in January, of a Winter mix…rain, sleet and ice going to all snow on the backside of the low pressure system. Way too early for exact tracks, etc. But it is something to watch develop.
*** Moisture…rainfall will be below average and snowfall will be below average…but not snow-free with that one shot system.
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Things to look for in January:
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***look for the red-tailed hawks perched along highways...looking for food
***watch for chickadees feeding up and down trees
***Beavers begin breeding this month.
FEBRUARY(2025):
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February Facts:
Feb. 1st…sunrise: 7:07…sunset: 4:51
Feb. 28th...sunrise: 6:33…sunset: 5:54
Average high and low: 45.8/27.6 Records: 85(1972)/-18(1905)
Average rainfall: 2.23”
Average snowfall: 4.3”
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FEBRUARY DATES:
The Full Moon…Feb. 12th…the full snow moon
Valentine’s Day…Feb. 14th
President’s Day…Feb. 17th
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The major factors:
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*** This is going to be an interesting month for our weather…thinking this will be the coldest month of the Winter season…the battle ground is still in place…the bulk of the nation staying in the Winter mild and that wicked cold air well to our north…focus on Canada…thinking the weak La Nina will fall to nothing.
*** My thinking… the mild air will relax just enough along 2 maybe three intrusions of the Arctic cold to come in from Canada… at least some snow-bunny hope.
*** Let’s think cold with below average temperatures… and some record low temperatures are possible at night…though records are very tough to come by.
*** With that said…the entire month will not be deep cold…temps will bounce…there will be mild spells…but the surges from the north will remind us, it is still very much Winter.
*** As for moisture… the northern storm track…will dip over us and we could get a system that comes screaming out of the southwest…you know the drill…the link of the cold air and moisture…we should see some link this February.
*** Let’s look for 2 to 3 storm systems….the mix of Clipper’s and southwest storms…it is all about the linkage.
*** So rainfall will be near average…snowfall…will be near to even a little above average…it only takes one and I’m at least thinking we have that shot.
*** For the Winter season(of course the snow season runs into early April)...but for the three months of Winter...thinking snowfall will be below average….12 inches or less…(Average is 16-17 inches).
Let’s not lose all hope snow-bunnies.
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Things to look for in February:
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***red flower buds of the silver maple swell with the first warm spell
***chickadees begin to sing--the first bird song of the year
***look for robins returning in large flocks
Enjoy the Winter season...some love it...some hate it, but you have to admit the weather is always fun and interesting in the middle of the nation...So let’s enjoy it. My Spring forecast will be out in mid to late February… seems like a long, long way off right now...Time now for any questions or comments...would love to hear from you.