Well that was a roller coaster of a Winter and January really took a major bite out of me. I have found that with these extended forecasts, when something goes bad, it really goes bad and January was very much in the tank.
Otherwise even with that ⅓ chunk, the rest of the Winter ideas were pretty good, that is what makes true forecasting so much fun. So I put my big boy pants back on and we move forward.
Winter is not over. We have to get through March, remember…"never trust our weather until after Easter." It is late this year(April) and this is not about Winter, it is about Spring.
The average first frost in St. Louis, Missouri is around October 15, and the last frost is around April 15. However, frost dates can vary depending on location, weather, and topography. Ocean temps are a big deal in short and long range forecasting..The Winter was a weak lA Nina…and it is still weak and thinking it is fading away…quickly. Not to El Nino but to a neutral stage…at least for a few months…Spring and Summer at the bare minimum. Neutral does play a part .
There are about 20 factors that I look at and study when putting these long range forecasts together… And in my book, they all have some heavy weight in the final forecast...and this is just not a quick look...this is a process that goes on every day...weather is my life…love it. You lose sight of patterns….global…and you lose sight of the forecast.
On to the factors that are in play… Here’s a short list...can’t give all my trade secrets away.
1. The analogs...looking back at past weather and then moving forward to compare what's going on in our atmosphere now… The analogs may be the most important thing in my long range forecast. A few years of interest..1984, 1993, 2014 and 2018..
2. The solar cycle…our sun follows an 11-year cycle of activity. And the current cycle, Solar Cycle 25, began in 2020…it looks like we have reached the solar max of this cycle…and it has been very active. A slow downward trend over the next year.
3. World wide volcanoes… Not just the activity but the locations...there has been a little pull back in volcanic action but at the same time an uptick in earthquakes.
4. The ocean patterns...just not the Pacific but all around the world.
5. The return of wildfires...where and how intense. Massive smoke clouds are rising into the stratosphere...think of it as mimicking the effects of a volcanic eruption…it's typically not a major concern in Spring.
FLOODING:
The large scale overall pattern should keep the risk of long term flooding on the low side…the main reasons:
*** We had plenty of wet weather for the first half of Winter…then we went dry.
*** Lack of snow cover over the upper Midwest…it is there but nothing out of the ordinary.
*** Dry soil moisture
*** Lack of frost in the ground.
*** Low stream flows in all rivers…large and small
MARCH 2025:
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March Facts:
March 1st…sunrise: 6:33…sunset: 5:54
March 31st...sunrise: 6:48…sunset: 7:23
Average high and low: 56.6/36.7…Records: 92(1929)/-5(1960)
Average rainfall: 3.50”
Average snowfall: 2.3”
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March Dates::
The Full Moon…March 14th…The worm moon
Daylight Saving Time Begins…March 9th…Spring ahead one hour
St. Patrick’s Day…March 17th
Spring Begins…March 20th
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The major factors:
*** A mild start to the month of March…with above average temperatures…the first 6 days or so.
*** Then the March version of the Arctic door will open once again resulting in below average, cold temperatures for the second and third week of March…also thinking the last week of the month will also be cold…but not as sharp.
*** Expecting a late season frost and freeze during this period…so we do not rush the garden season…clean up yes, but limited planting…other than our cool season crops and flowers.
*** I don’t see any cold weather records at night…or high temperature records this March.
*** So temperatures for the entire month should end up slightly below average…colder yes but we keep the crazy in check.
*** Tree pollen will start to kick into gear early in the month…but then get tapped down for the rest of the month as the colder air slows the season down.
*** As for moisture...snow is still a factor in the month of March...one of our heaviest snow months of the year. The news of March snow...it can be deep and heavy but typically does not hang around very long.
*** Moisture for the month…with a few cold weeks we can not turn our backs on snow…thinking we will see 1 maybe 2 snows this March.
*** Snowfall for the snow season…November to early April…will be near to a little above average…where we are right now…18.3”...the most since 2018 when we had 24.2 inches.
*** We do start to think about severe thunderstorms in March...with a mild week to start then colder temperature the rest of the month…the Mach severe storm season should be on the quiet side…we will have to watch for 2 thunderstorm events.
*** Rainfall for the month will be near to a touch below average.
*** Not concerned about flooding on the big rivers… limited snowpack and the overall rivers continue to be low. Any strong to severe thunderstorms will bring some flash flooding on the small streams and creeks… not really excited about it.
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Things to look for in March:
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***the red maples begin to bloom
***the ticks start to appear
***the purple martin arrive...a solid sign of the Spring season
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APRIL 2025:
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April Facts:
April 1st…sunrise: 6:46…sunset: 7:24
April 30th...sunrise: 6:05…sunset: 7:52
Average high and low: 68.0/47.0…Records: 93(2002)/20(1936)
Average rainfall: 4.73”
Average snowfall: 0.2”
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April Dates:
The Full Moon…April 12th…The pink moon
Palm Sunday… April 13th
Good Friday…April 18th
Easter… April 20th
Earth Day…April 22nd
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The major factors:
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*** Temperatures will bring an interesting forecast this April…we get into the classic Spring swings…thanks to the battle of Winter and Spring…temperatures should average out pretty close to average.
*** I don’t see any records… high or low but the growing season, the flowering trees and of course, the pollen counts jump to the forefront….this will be a rough allergy season for a lot of folks…the first season is the tree pollen season….then grass season in the Summer and ragweed in the Fall.
*** Rainfall will be below average…even well below average…that would be a rarity for April in STL…typically April is a rather wet month for us.
*** What about thunderstorms...interesting…it is April…we will have storms…but thinking this April will not be a hard core rock and roll month
*** Thinking the number of outbreaks will be below average…2 to 3 severe weather events…going along with the idea of the dry month.
*** Flooding concerns should remain in check…widespread flooding is not a problem on the big rivers.
*** However…we always have to be aware of flash flooding with severe weather events…but again that action looks limited this April.
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Things to look for in April:
***the tent caterpillars start to appear
***Hummingbirds start to come back to the area...they are called hummingbirds...because they can’t remember the words:)
***robins and other birds start to build their nests
MAY 2025:
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May Facts:
May 1st…sunrise: 6:04…sunset: 7:53
May 31st...sunrise: 5:39…sunset: 8:19
Average high and low: 77.1/57.9…Records: 98(1953)/31(1976)
Average rainfall: 4.82”
Average snowfall: 0.0”
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May Dates:
The Full Moon…May 12th…The flower moon
Mothers Day…May 11th
Memorial Day…May 26th
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The major factors:
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*** Spring roars into action in the month of May…mild to warm temperatures all month long except for one cold snap…more on that in a second.
*** It is all about Spring but there will be hints…even surges of Summer especially the last half of the month.
*** That brings us to the Blackberry Winter around the 9,10,11 and 12th of May… I rarely turn my back on this feature in the atmosphere. It is a cold run of weather...May cold…and I will not turn my back on it again this year...but let’s think more of a cool snap rather than a cold snap during this period.
*** I do not see any records...but could be pushing record high numbers late in the month.
*** When we add it all up…temperatures will be above average for the month of May..a shot of well above average
*** Rainfall...looks like it will be below average…but there will be a fine line of a series of severe weather events…close but the core action looks like it will be over the Ohio Valley and the central Great Lakes…and the central and southern plains…that is really close.
*** It is the month of May…there will be severe weather…more active than March and April…though not thinking out of control.
*** Thinking 3 to 4 events and that would be slightly below average…going along with the idea that rainfall will be below average. However, in the severe weather events there will be locally heavy rain.
*** With my rainfall thinking…flooding on the major rivers should remain in check. But like any Spring month when we get the thunderstorms rumbling in severe weather events we have to be concerned about flash flooding during each event…small streams and creeks….up and down very quickly.
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Things to look for in May:
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***watch for lightning bugs or fireflies on warm evenings
***the chigger season begins and runs thru September
***coyote pups begin emerging from their dens
Enjoy the Spring season...enjoy the trees and flowers blooming, tolerate the pollen, the rumbles of thunder and the increase in temperatures day and night, the added length of day...and of course the baseball season kicks into high gear. My Summer forecast will be out in mid to late May. Embrace and respect the atmosphere.
Time now for any questions or comments...would love to hear from you.