OPINION: 'Hancock and Kelley' makes predictions on presidential race, key Missouri races, amendments

ST. LOUIS (KMOX) - Election Day is almost here, which means Americans are getting really closer to no longer seeing political ads on their televisions every third commercial.

While many Americans will head to the polls to vote on Election Day, many Americans have chose vote early, including in Missouri

The most talked about race this election season is who will become president between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but here in Missouri, voters will also have some key decisions to make, from the Senate race between Lucas Kunce and Josh Hawley, whether or not to pass Amendment 2, which would legalize sports wagering in Missouri, whether or not to pass Amendment 3, which would legalize abortion up until the point of fetal viability, and more.

KMOX Political Analyst John Hancock and Michael Kelley, host of 'Hancock and Kelley' on KMOX gave their Election Day predictions Friday on some of the key races and topics in Missouri and their pick for who will become president between Harris and Trump.

HANCOCK: Donald Trump, but Kamala Harris if it is record turnout
KELLEY: Kamala Harris

Hancock, who was the former chair of the Missouri Republican Party, believes Trump will win the election, but if there is record turnout on Election Day, it could fall in favor for Kamala Harris.

"The thing to keep an eye on is the turnout levels. If it's record turnout, then I think Harris wins. If it's anything that approaches record-high, historic turnout, Harris is going to win," said Hancock. "If it's a traditional, typical, presidential turnout, I think Trump wins."

Kelley, a longtime Democratic strategist, is confident in the Democrats 'ground game' and believes the Republican 'ground game' that is being run by Elon Musk is untested.

"In a race that was four years ago decided by thousands, I think this one will as well," said Kelley. "I think the field game and the steady campaign that Vice President Harris has run is going to be able to overcome this push from Donald Trump."

HANCOCK: Josh Hawley
KELLEY: Josh Hawley

Hawley and Kunce met up for their first and only televised debate in St. Louis Thursday night, and while Hancock thought Kunce did well, he also felt Kunce needed to do a whole lot more than what he did Thursday night.

"Kunce is double digits behind, at least that's what the polling says, so he needed more than that (Thursday night)," said Hancock. "I don't think anybody clearly won the debate, but Kunce needed more than that."

Kelley thinks Kunce had an "impressive" performance in the debate, but he felt Kunce needed that exposure earlier in the campaign.

"This was a delay tactic Sen. Hawley to wait until Halloween," said Kelley. "I voted, I know John (Hancock) has, so a lot of people didn't get the opportunity to see from him."

HANCOCK: Mike Kehoe
KELLEY: Mike Kehoe

According to a SLU/YouGov Poll, Kehoe has a 10 point advantage compared to Quade in the Missouri gubernatorial race and both Kelley and Hancock think Kehoe will win.

HANCOCK: Will Not Pass Narrowly
KELLEY: Will Not Pass

Hancock thinks the messaging by proponents of Amendment 2, which would change the state's constitution and legalize sports wagering, hasn't been great, and thinks the margins will be close, but in the end, it will not pass by narrow margins.

"The pro-side has pivoted from it's message. They are not focusing exclusively on the money 'goes to education'. As a matter of messaging, I don't think it was particularly helpful for them," said Hancock. "Now they are using celebrity endorsement like Ozzie Smith, they are focusing on the fact the major newspapers in the state endorsed this, they are focusing on the fact that 38 other states have this and most of our neighboring states have it and we're missing out. I think that a fundamentally better message."

"If you had to push me to make a call on it, I think it goes down narrowly."

Kelley thinks it will also not pass.

"I fear that when you have $15-20 million spent on you, even if it stopped two weeks ago, the damage may be done," said Kelley. "From experience, we both know anytime you have that much money being spent on one of those contests, it's going to be really really tough."

HANCOCK: Will pass
KELLEY: Will pass handedly

Both Hancock and Kelley believe Amendment 3, which would legalize abortion up until the point of fetal viability, will pass, with Kelley thinking the 'people power' and motivation on the supporter side of Amendment 3 will lead to Amendment 3 passing north of 54-55%

"(The supporters) have been out there from signature gathering, all the way through," said Kelley. "They been at the early voting places, they have shown what 'people power' campaigns can do and I think in this ruby red state, they are going to flip this antiquated law."

Hancock thinks the margins will be tighter than people think.

"(Proponents of Amendment 3) have spent $26 million or so pushing it, so we will see," said Hancock. "But the late money from the 'No' side is interesting and could be impactful. I do it's going to result in tightening that margin quite a bit."