With the death toll continuing to mount and new assassinations popping up, many are wondering if the Middle East will see a ceasefire in Gaza or a broader war in the next few months.
The Biden administration is continuing to push for a ceasefire deal to stop the fighting in Gaza. But a pair of assassinations that are being blamed on Israel might pull any possibility to an end in fighting off the table.
The assassinations in question are that of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, who was killed in Beirut, and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran.
While Israel has claimed responsibility for the Shukr assassination, it has not for the other, though the nation is suspected of being behind the slaying.
The assassination of Haniyeh could play a major role in potential ceasefire talks, as he was involved in the negotiations between Hamas and Israel.
Still, Biden’s team is fighting for a deal to be made, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin shared during an interview in Singapore that diplomacy is the main goal despite the assassinations.
“The best way to bring the temperature down everywhere, put us on a better path, is through a ceasefire in Gaza,” Blinken said in Singapore. “That will have, I think, important effects on other areas where you could see conflict — whether it’s in the north of Israel and Lebanon, whether it’s Iran, whether it’s in the Red Sea with the Houthis.”
While there have been talks about potentially convincing Hamas leaders to surrender and go into exile, a ceasefire appears to be the only likely plan that Biden’s administration has put forward.
Now, with both sides asking for new concessions in the talks and the assassination of Haniyeh, some are worried the deal may never get done.
Some in the US are even questioning whether or not Israel wants a deal to get done, including Senate Armed Services Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.).
“The concern is is this going to cause an escalation because in downtown Beirut they took somebody out, and in downtown Tehran, they took someone out,” Reed shared with Politico. “The question is what effect will it have on negotiations. I don’t think it will help it. I think it will set it back. That might be part of the logic of the attack on him too.”