The BA.2 variant is spreading in countries around the world, creating new infections and new concern over crowds gathering at major events.
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Most recently, cases of the new subvariant of the virus popped British Academy Film Awards, according to reporting by the Hollywood Reporter, creating concern on how this will impact the upcoming Academy Awards and events overall in the near future.
While the Bay Area is relatively safe, and unlikely to see a spike in hospitalization and serious illness, there are other things to take into account as the new subvariant makes its way over to the West Coast.
"I'm worried about the confusion and the anxiety and the mayhem and the disruptions it will cause once we have an increase in numbers in the next few weeks," said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a professor of medicine and Associate Dean of Regional Campuses at UCSF on KCBS Radio's "Ask an Expert" on Monday with Holly Quan and Jason Brooks.
Hospitalization is not as much of a concern, as rates in California right now are the lowest they've been since the first reopening of the state in June of 2021. In San Francisco, there have only been 19 new cases per 100,000 cases reported in the last week, which is "almost as low as you can get," he said.
There's some variation around the various regions in the state, in Fresno for instance, it's about 100 cases per 100,000, said Chin-Hong.
What's more pressing with the new subvariant is how it will affect daily life.
A positive test alone has a significant impact, as people will then have to isolate for at least five days, disrupting the workforce and school. For people traveling during this time, like for spring break, it means they could wind up stuck in one place as they wait to test negative.
"We're seeing this pattern again," said Chin-Hong. "As long as you're vaccinated and boosted you're not going to get very sick, but because we're still looking at positive tests as leading to isolation, it means you’ll be stuck."
The high transmissability of BA.2 makes this a more likely outcome in the near future, as it’s 30 to 50% more tansmissable than omicron, he said.
"The people who've escaped being infected so far may not be able to escape BA.2," he said.
Infections have been found in the United States already, but not at a point where there’s a noticeable surge, likely because the country only just recovered from the omicron surge in January, said Chin-Hong.
"However, I think every time something happens in the United Kingdom, it always comes to the United States," he said.
But the coming warmer weather is likely to help blunt the coming wave, unlike other countries that are having spikes, California residents are better able to gather outside.
"Regardless of what happens, I don't want people to panic," said Chin-Hong. "We have a lot more tools in the toolkit."
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