Our planet has just inched closer to the possibility of an apocalypse, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. This week, they announced that the Doomsday Clock had slipped to 89 seconds to midnight.
As it falls out of the 90-100 second range, the Doomsday Clock signals that we are closer to human extinction than we have ever been in its 78-year history. Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project founded the bulletin 80 years ago. Two years later they created the clock, using it to convey threats to humanity and the planet.
Now, the bulletin’s Science and Security Board – which includes nine Nobel laureates – sets the clock every year. In 2023, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the clock was set at 90 seconds to midnight. Last year, it remained there.
“In 2024, humanity edged ever closer to catastrophe,” said the bulletin’s statement about the move to 89 seconds to midnight. “Trends that have deeply concerned the Science and Security Board continued, and despite unmistakable signs of danger, national leaders and their societies have failed to do what is needed to change course.”
Specific risks include war in the Middle East and the war still raging in Ukraine. According to the bulletin, the latter conflict could become nuclear at any moment. A few months ago, Audacy reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons. Russia has the largest stockpile of the weapons in the world, with an estimated 5,580 (the U.S. is in second place with an estimated 5,044). Just one of those weapons could destroy a city and kill most of its people.
“The countries that possess nuclear weapons are increasing the size and role of their arsenals, investing hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons that can destroy civilization,” said the bulletin. “The nuclear arms control process is collapsing, and high-level contacts among nuclear powers are totally inadequate given the danger at hand. Alarmingly, it is no longer unusual for countries without nuclear weapons to consider developing arsenals of their own – actions that would undermine longstanding nonproliferation efforts and increase the ways in which nuclear war could start.”
Other concerns include the impacts of climate change, the risk of another pandemic, and potentially dangerous technology.
Regarding climate change, the bulletin said it increased last year based on a “myriad indicators, including sea-level rise and global surface temperature, surpassed previous records,” as well as a predicted increase in greenhouse gas emissions. It also noted that extreme weather and other climate change-influenced events have affected every continent.
As we kicked off the new year in the U.S., for example, the Los Angeles area was devastated by deadly wildfires. These were made 35% more likely due to climate change, according to a recent study by World Weather Attribution.
“The long-term prognosis for the world’s attempts to deal with climate change remains poor, as most governments fail to enact the financing and policy initiatives necessary to halt global warming,” said the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. “Growth in solar and wind energy has been impressive but remains insufficient to stabilize the climate. Judging from recent electoral campaigns, climate change is viewed as a low priority in the United States and many other countries.”
During his first week in office, President Donald Trump made moves to step away from global climate action, the Associated Press reported. Experts warn that plans to ramp up domestic oil and gas production and remove incentives for electric vehicles are concerning, the outlet said.
“In the biological arena, emerging and re-emerging diseases continue to threaten the economy, society, and security of the world,” said the bulletin. “The off-season appearance and in-season continuance of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), its spread to farm animals and dairy products, and the occurrence of human cases have combined to create the possibility of a devastating human pandemic.”
This risk looms as the world still deals with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Supposedly high-containment biological laboratories continue to be built throughout the world, but oversight regimes for them are not keeping pace, increasing the possibility that pathogens with pandemic potential may escape,” the bulletin added. “Rapid advances in artificial intelligence have increased the risk that terrorists or countries may attain the capability of designing biological weapons for which countermeasures do not exist.”
Lastly, the bulletin said “disruptive technologies advanced last year in ways that make the world more dangerous,” including systems that incorporate artificial intelligence into military targeting. It said this technology has already been used in Ukraine and the Middle East.
“Such efforts raise questions about the extent to which machines will be allowed to make military decisions – even decisions that could kill on a vast scale, including those related to the use of nuclear weapons,” the bulletin stressed. “Tensions among the major powers are increasingly reflected in competition in space, where China and Russia are actively developing anti-satellite capabilities; the United States has alleged that Russia has tested a satellite with a dummy warhead on it, suggesting plans to place nuclear weapons in orbit.”
All of the concerns mentioned above are exacerbated by the spread of misinformation, disinformation and conspiracy theories, the bulletin added. Advancements in AI also play a part here, since AI technology makes it easier to create and share false information.
“This corruption of the information ecosystem undermines the public discourse and honest debate upon which democracy depends,” said the bulletin. “The battered information landscape is also producing leaders who discount science and endeavor to suppress free speech and human rights, compromising the fact-based public discussions that are required to combat the enormous threats facing the world.”
To conclude, the bulletin said that “blindly continuing on the current path is a form of madness,” and pointed to the U.S., China and Russia as superpowers with the collective power to destroy civilization. Going into the future, it said these powers have a responsibility to keep the world from slipping even further towards Doomsday.