ST. LOUIS - The St. Louis Cardinals need pitching. That priority has been made extremely clear since mid-April.
Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak says the team will likely go after and add three starters in the off-season, but could the Cardinals get a head start by waiver claiming a potential starter soon to be on the market?
On Tuesday afternoon, shockwaves were sent throughout the baseball world as multiple teams decided to waive nearly all their players on expiring contracts, with some notable players including former Cardinals outfielders Harrison Bader and Randal Grichuk, starters Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger, and reliever Matt Moore.
The most notable name to be placed on waivers was Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, whom the Angels acquired only a little more than a month ago from the Chicago White Sox, sending two young prospects, including a top-100 prospect.
Should the St. Louis Cardinals pounce and claim Giolito off waivers? The answer: Maybe?
Let's take deep look at the Cardinals situation, along with Giolito's numbers and situation.
Whoever gets the players will be determined by reverse order of record. The team with the worst record that puts in a claim on a player will receive him. The Cardinals are fifth in the waiver order, so they will have first most priority to claim any of the players placed on waivers Tuesday before the likes of postseason contenders like the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, or Los Angeles Dodgers, who will all be at the bottom of the waiver order.
Giolito is a pending free agent, set to go into the market at 29-years-old, so any waiver claim will likely only be a one month rental. Since he was traded, he cannot be given the qualifying offer, so the only risk teams will give up for him to sign him in the winter is pure cash and years. Plain and simple.
On one hand, Giolito basic numbers are not stellar, starting 27 games and posting an overall 4.45 ERA in 153.2 innings. However, Giolito ERA was a ok 3.79 ERA before the trade to the Angels, but it inflated after a disastrous stint in Anaheim in which he posted an ERA of 6.89 in 32.2 innings.
Analytically, it hasn't been great either, with Giolito posting a seasonal FIP of 4.95 this season and a expected ERA of 4.52 this season, according to FanGraphs.
However, their are still some things to like about Giolito. Giolito is still one of the most durable starting pitchers in the game, pitching the eighth most innings in baseball since 2019. He is a still a quality swing and miss pitcher, with the Giolito posting a strikeout percentage of 25.2% this season, which is better than the likes of pitchers like Corbin Burnes, Logan Gilbert, Braxton Garrett, Framber Valdez, Logan Webb, and Sonny Gray, along with a whiff rate in the 71st percentile.
Giolito's profile entirely fits with the type of starters that the Cardinals will go after this offseason: starters who have quality swing and miss stuff.
Would it be worth it for the Cardinals to claim Giolito off waivers and get a little advantage in the race to sign him in the offseason by letting him get a month long experience of the Cardinals culture and clubhouse? Sure.
However, could it also annoy Giolito that a team that isn't going to make the postseason this season and blocks him a chance to play in the postseason where postseason contenders like the Rangers, the Baltimore Orioles or the Rays would almost certainly want his services too? Sure
Another interesting point to consider is that would it be worth to claim Giolito and give him the innings to pitch rather than giving it to someone like Drew Rom, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson? Maybe?
The Cardinals will almost certainly go after Giolito in the offseason and its highly unlikely he would cost as much as the likes Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, or Blake Snell will likely get on the market. But is it worth to get a month head start on Giolito? The only people who can give that answer are the Cardinals and we will see if they will take the gamble of claiming him off waivers in the next 24-48 hours.