DAVE MURRAY’S EXCLUSIVE SUMMER FORECAST FOR ST. LOUIS... JUNE, JULY, AND AUGUST, 2022:
For the first time in many springs…we actually had a spring in 2022…yes a little wet at times, yes a little cool at times, yes a little hot at times and not a lot of super strong severe weather…that all counts as a real Spring in St. Louis. The planting season is moving along but overall on the slow side. Plus…something rather rare…no Blackberry Winter this May…maybe just too much cool weather in April and early May…but it was chilly…day and night between the 16th and the 20th…so close!
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The keys to the Summer season...what to do with the existing La Nina pattern...well it looks like it is going to stay around for the Summer season…the third in a row. Thinking it continues to be a moderate La Nina setup…This is important…there have only been 3 times in recorded weather history that we have seen three La Nina patterns in a row…plus thinking this pattern will continue for the Fall and upcoming Winter. Why is this important…well analogs will not be a big help in forecasting and climate models will also be a disaster looking ahead. Simply…tough forecasting ahead…but that’s okay! I’m thinking that this run ahead…Summer, Fall and Winter will be nothing like the previous two La Nina years.
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So this Summer season...ocean temps are all showing their hands...all about the La Nina...one feature I’m also interested in...is warmer than average ocean temps along the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico...a factor especially in the hurricane forecast...I will cover that at the end of this forecast.
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Let’s get to work...here we go:
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There are about 20 factors that I look at and study when putting these long range forecasts together… And in my book they all have some heavy weight in the final forecast...and this is just not a quick look...this is a process that goes on every day(yes even in retirement)...I don’t miss the T.V. side at all...but weather is my life… I love it..
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On to the factors that are in play… Here’s a short list...can’t give all my trade secrets away.
The analogs...looking back at past weather and then moving forward to compare what's going on in our atmosphere now… The analogs may be the most important thing in my long range forecast…focusing on 2003, 2008, 2020, and 2021.
The solar cycle… We are now seeing a big surge in the solar pattern...the sun becoming more active. But remember the changes in the sun are always slow motion...never rush the sun cycles.
World wide volcanoes… Not just the activity but the locations...critical in a long range forecast...we have seen an uptick in the volcanic action around the world.
The ocean patterns...just not the Pacific but all around the world.
There are a number of other features that I look at when it comes to the atmosphere and the oceans...without getting into too much detail...here are some of the items...the most important first...then, in my mind the least important for this Summer season.
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The most important:
The MJO... While the MJO is a lesser-known phenomenon, it can have dramatic impacts in the mid-latitudes. Several times a year the MJO is a strong contributor to various extreme events in the United States.
The eastern pacific oscillation (EPO)
The Arctic oscillation (AO)
There are minor signs in the Pacific… But not in the typical El Niño or La Niña.
Neutral patterns in the oceans right now.
A negative (PDO) pacific decadal oscillation.
A positive (AMO) Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.
The jet stream settles into its typical quiet Summer flow...along the U.S. Canadian border.
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Least important… But important:
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Tropical North Atlantic (TNA)
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
Pacific North American (PNA)
Western and Eastern Pacific Oscillation (WPO)(EPO)
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These are many of the factors that come into play and must be looked at all the time for these seasonal forecasts… So let's get to the details… The Summer season in STL.
JUNE:
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The major factors:
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*** June typically is a pure summer month as the heat and humidity take consistent control…but consistent is not what this June is all about.
*** Thinking this June will stay with the pattern that was set up in May...that means bouncing temperatures from cool to warm to hot and the storm track remains active right over us.
*** It is a 50-50 month with our temps...so when we add up the numbers temperatures will be near average for the entire month...pretty easy to take for June…with that said…there will be one or two rather hot runs.
*** June is also a month when thunderstorms typically really rock and roll...typically is the key word...in my book it is the wettest month of the year...mainly due to thunderstorms
*** June storms will be very active...keeping the pattern alive that setup in April and May…not that super severe weather was dominant…but an active storm track kept things interesting…that will continue during the entire month of June.
*** All day rains almost never happen in June.
*** Thinking rainfall for the month will be above average...so it is a wet weather pattern.
*** No river concerns...big or small...however when the thunderstorms rolls in…each will create a flash flooding set up…small streams and creeks up and down very quickly.
*** The wetness does tend to keep temps down in the month-long set up.
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Things to look for in June:
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***watch for birds carrying food to their young.
***check evergreens for bagworms
***the cattail blooms are covered with pollen
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JULY:
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The major factors:
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*** Typically a hot and humid month...we all know that...hard core Summer in STL...but thinking not as extreme as we have seen in the past...yes...it will be warm to hot but not a pounder., and not consistent.
*** Temperatures will be near to a little below average for the month.
*** I don’t see any record… hot or cool...but thinking humidity is the big factor...and this will tend to keep nighttime temps up.
*** Not thinking this is the hottest month of the Summer
*** The rainfall pattern will remain rather active…as the storm track makes a few pushes our way from the north…that will be rather weird for July.
*** So rainfall will end up near to a little bit above average…thinking July will not be a month we talk much about drought.
*** Major low pressure systems will be hard to find but a large temperature contrast will remain in place from north to south over the middle of the nation…that will keep the thunderstorm pattern alive and well…above average for July.
*** One thing we have to keep an eye on…I’m expecting very extreme, consistent heat over the western plains from Texas to South Dakota…however I don’t see a lot of that releasing our way in July.
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Things to look for in July:
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***the song bird songs have now subsided...the birds are busy raising their young
***long-tailed weasels breed through August
***watch for hummingbirds bringing their young to feeders.
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AUGUST:
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The major factors:
*** This once again looks to be the hottest month of the Summer…but I’m not expecting this to be a pounder of a Summer month.
*** Nighttime temps will be staying up.
*** The concern I will be watching in July…the intense heat in the western plains…will continue to be a watcher in August…with one or two releases our way…this would be a dry heat with big temps.
*** Records are a real tough thing to hit in the Summertime...because the records are very intense...and I don’t see any records this month...unless we get one or two days of a hot and dry blowtorch from the west...which I think we will…if so…then a record high could be close….that's for the short-term forecast.
*** Temperatures when we add up all the numbers will be near to slightly above average.
*** Rainfall...August is typically a very dry month...not so much this August with above average rainfall…helping to keep the overall trend in temperatures down.
*** The storm track remains active and close to us so thunderstorm events will be above average…4 or 5 in August. Even in August we will be carefully watching the sky for those big-time events.
*** So drought is not a big concern again…however I;m expecting another early start to the hurricane season(see ideas below)...any storms in the central and western Gulf will need to be watched carefully.
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Things to look for in August:
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***look for large flocks of purple martins gathering for fall migration
***late summer molt produces drab colors in robins and other birds...they are not sick
***wild cherries and wild grapes begin to ripen
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TROPICAL-HURRICANE IDEAS:
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In the Summer forecast I also like to look at the Hurricane season in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico…there are a few things coming into play this hurricane season that runs from June 1st to the end of November...the peak is typically the month of September...No El Nino...but the La Nina pattern is hanging around and the Atlantic Basin is already warm and this is going to be another busy hurricane season…like the last two seasons, the big, move across the Atlantic storms(long-track storms) will be limited and once again the focus will be on the close to coast storms. What also is becoming commonplace…classic La Nina…there will be a lot of toss away storms that will pad the overall numbers of named storms…don’t get me started on that.
Thinking it gets going early...everyone will be in the high impact zone and on high alert...the Gulf coast, the East coast and coming back to life will be the Caribbean region. In the U.S. there are two zones I’m very concerned about...the southeast coast...especially the coastline of North and South Carolina...the second the central and western Gulf...the Texas and Louisiana coastline, a big focus.
I don’t like to put numbers in this forecast...because it gets tricky with the naming of storms...but it will be a season with several (6-7) strong hurricanes...Hang on, once again.
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The western Pacific will once again have a rather quiet season for the third season in a row…classic La Nina too.
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Enjoy the Summer season...we all know Summer will fly by...before we know it summer vacations are over, the pools close and it is back to school...STL has a lot to offer...get out there and enjoy...but be safe and smart.
My Fall forecast will be out in late August… Time now for any questions or comments...would love to hear from you.