In many parts of Kansas, the upcoming wheat harvest in does not show signs of optimism.
Record-setting drought and hotter-than-average temperatures have impacted much of the U.S. early this year, including the Plains region. Drought conditions have worsened the spread of the wheat streak mosaic virus and barley yellow dwarf virus, which impact the potential of the crop.
Combined with climbing input costs related to fertilizer, diesel fuel, and tariffs, longtime wheat farmers say they are feeling a lot of pain.
Crop estimates underscore just how bad the situation is. Growers will see their smallest wheat crop in terms of production since 1972, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture; 1.56 billion bushels this year, down 21% from 2025. That’s especially harmful to Kansas, one of the top overall producers of wheat in the U.S.
In only five of the past 40 years has Kansas' wheat crop been in such a bad state, an analysis of USDA data shows, with 58% of the crop rated as “poor” or “very poor” as of May 17. The last time the fields were in as bad a condition was during a severe drought in 2023.
With this year so bad, many wheat growers have been forced to file for crop insurance or consider whether they can lean on other crops to withstand the uncertainties.
The weather is unpredictable, and farmers' costs are adding up. Several wheat farmers described worsening extremes this year, including the winter's intense and unseasonable heat, late freezes, and an ongoing shortage of rain.
The U.S., meanwhile, has lost ground in the global wheat market to Russia and the European Union; national wheat acreage has dropped during the past several years.
Still, wheat is the nation’s third field crop in planted acreage, production, and gross farm receipts after corn and soybeans, according to the USDA. The U.S. is one of the world’s largest producers by volume of wheat each year, and it’s a major exporter of the crop.
Thousands of U.S. farmers rely on wheat as an important livelihood, and factors outside of their control have made their work more difficult.
The dry conditions sped up how fast the crop grew, USDA data show, not a positive sign for the quality of the harvest.
By the end of the first full week of May, 86% of wheat crops in Kansas had produced a seed head, while 61% was typical in the previous decade at the same point in the season.
Only 32.4 million acres of wheat were planted this year to begin with, and harvested acreage hit just 22 million, marking abandonment, which is when farmers stop tending to a crop before harvesting, at slightly above 32% of this year's wheat crop, according to USDA estimates.
Except for the 2022-2023 cycle, there have only been a handful of other years in history where U.S. winter wheat abandonment has been higher.
In Kansas, about 17% of the crop is being abandoned this year.
Forecasters are predicting a substantial El Nino, a cyclical and natural process in which patches of the equatorial Pacific warm and alter the world’s weather patterns, including rainfall. Because in the U.S., that is expected to mean warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer, it could be months before there is any drought relief.
The war in Iran, meanwhile, has sent fuel prices soaring; diesel is up nearly $2 per gallon from a year ago.
The cost of seed, fertilizer and more is rapidly adding up, too. Some growers bought fertilizer ahead of time for this season, but they worry about the year ahead.
There aren't many options for farmers to make up for losses; crop insurance to account for the losses only go so far.
Allowing the wheat to fallow — essentially leaving it unused to prep land for the next crop — or planting something unplanned aren't viable options, either. It's not just a matter of adding more water to the land to try to get wheat to stick, and it's difficult for farmers to change course to another crop at this point in the year.
By ALEXA ST. JOHN and CHARLIE RIEDEL, Associated Press
