With just a year to go until the 2024 presidential election, poll results released this week paint a less-than-rosy picture for current President Joe Biden. In fact, a generic “Democratic candidate” fared better than the Commander-In-Chief.
Results of The New York Time/Siena College poll showed that 30% of registered voters would definitely vote for the Democratic nominee if it wasn’t Biden, compared to 28% that would definitely vote for former President Donald Trump, the current GOP frontrunner. Overall, the generic candidate had 48% of support from registered voters, compared to 40% for Trump.
“An unnamed 'Democratic candidate' shifts the race by 12 points on the margins, turning a four-point Democratic deficit against Trump into an eight-point lead, 48% to 40%,” said The Washington Post.
According to the outlet, “Democrats are growing increasingly anxious about the state of President Biden’s reelection campaign, concerned the president and his political team are ignoring warning signs and not taking action to correct course amid increasing indications that Biden is likely to face a tough race against former president Donald Trump.”
Audacy reported that Minnesota Democrat Rep. Dean Philips has announced his intention to challenge Biden as the Democratic candidate in 2024. He believes that Biden, now in his 80s, is too old to run again, per TIME.
Another issue facing Biden is support from a key demographic group: Black voters. While Black voters helped Biden successfully beat Trump in 2020, Cliff Albright, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, warned that their support shouldn’t be taken for granted. He said that young Black voters in particular “have been disillusioned by Biden’s policies,” such as the student debt relief program overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court and his “fervent support of Israel.”
Yet another issue is the economy.
“By two-to-one, 57-29%, voters across the states say economic issues (jobs, taxes, cost of living) are more important than societal issues (abortion, guns, democracy) when they determine who to support next year,” said Dr. Don Levy, Director, Siena College Research Institute. “While a plurality of Democrats says societal issues are more important, more than 60% of both Republicans and independents are making voting decisions based on economic issues.”
Levy also explained that “voters give Trump a huge advantage on the economy, with 59% of voters saying he would do a better job than Biden.”
Overall, the new poll found that Trump had a lead against the current president in most key swing states in a hypothetical race with Biden and Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Earlier this year, Kennedy announced that he would run as a Democrat, but he switched to Independent this summer. His stance on vaccines is more closely aligned with Republican voters, and Audacy reported that former Trump supporters have donated money to his campaign.
Trump is facing considerable legal issues that threaten to keep his name off the ballot next November. Other hypothetical matchups covered by the NYT/Siena poll included Florida Gov Ron DeSantis (who usually comes in a distant second to Trump in GOP polls) and Biden, with DeSantis trending very slightly ahead of Biden in battleground states. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, another GOP hopeful, would lose to Biden 38% to 46% in battleground states.