With the end of the current U.S. Supreme Court term coming up, the court is still expected to issue 33 opinions, more than half of its total caseload.
According to Supreme Court scholar Adam Feldman, this is the highest number of cases left by the end of May in five years, and one of around five terms with more than 30 cases since 1997. With 53% of cases still outstanding, the court is facing its highest percentage of unargued cases for the final weeks in a term since 1950.
A draft of the expected opinions – regarding the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health case – made waves when it was leaked last month, as it would overturn abortion protections established by the court in the early 1970s with the Roe v. Wade decision. If the draft version of the leak becomes the court’s final decision, abortion could become illegal in 26 states, according to the Guttmacher Institute.
According to Bloomberg, the leak and subsequent investigation called by Chief Justice John Roberts could be signs of “internal discord” in the nation’s highest court, which might be contributing to the backlog.
“In a highly unusual move, the court isn’t issuing opinions this week, suggesting the strife might be delaying even low-stakes cases,” said the outlet.
Conservative Justice Clarence Thomas even said he thought the opinion leak deeply damaged the institution. On May 25, Marquette University Law School released a poll that showed public confidence in the Supreme Court was at just 44% after the leak.
Currently, the court has a conservative lean, with three of the nine justices appointed by one-term former Republican President Donald Trump. While most of the justices appeared to support the leaked Dobbs v. Jackson opinion written by Justice Samuel Alito, polls continue to show that most Americans do not want to see Roe v. Wade overturned.
Apart from the leak, Bloomberg said Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a conservative, and Justice Elena Kagan, a liberal, “have sniped at one another over the court’s handling of its stream of emergency requests, dubbed the ‘shadow docket’ by critics.”
Feldman said the court usually saves its “biggest” decisions for the end of the term. In addition to the abortion case, which relates to a Mississippi law banning abortion procedures after 15 weeks of pregnancy, the court is expected to decide the New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc., et al., Petitioners v. Kevin P. Bruen, in His Official Capacity as Superintendent of New York State Police, et al. case, which some see as an expansion of gun rights.
Following a rash of mass shootings, including the mass murder of 19 children and their two teachers by a teen gunman armed with legally purchased AR-15 rifles, gun control has been on the minds of many Americans. According to Vox, polls show that most Americans also want stricter gun laws and that “politicians diverge from voters” when it comes to gun deaths.
Other cases left for this term address religion in schools and migrant protections, said Feldman. According to Reason, the court will have to average two opinions per day to finish the backlog by July 4.
Ketanji Brown Jackson, President Joe Biden’s newest pick for the court, is soon expected to replace Justice Stephen Breyer. However, this will not impact the conservative lean of the court.
Going forward, cases expected for the nine-month term starting in October are related to university affirmative action, anti-gay discrimination, race-based voting maps and, potentially, Roundup weed killer.
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