This week marks the start of Atlantic hurricane season. Experts think that we should brace for a particularly active one, with nearly 20 named storms expected by the end of November.
Texas A&M Atmospheric Sciences Professor John Nielsen-Gammon said that a reduction in air pollution might be contributing to increasing numbers of hurricanes, KRLD 1080 reported this week.
“Specifically, the decrease in fine particles in the atmosphere that started out in the 1970s, removing that pollution has allowed the oceans to warm more and the processes within hurricanes to develop more easily,” the professor said.
Just last year, Hurricane Beryl caused destruction in Texas. It resulted in property damage and even deaths in the Houston area.
During the upcoming hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association expects 13 to 19 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph or higher. Out of those, six to 10 of those storms are expected to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher and three to five are expected to be major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
NOAA said it had 70% confidence in those ranges and 60% confidence that this will be an above-normal season.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that advanced weather prediction tools and tracking systems have made the U.S. “more prepared for hurricane season.”
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.
However, some have recently raised concerns about agency cuts and their potential impact on safety. Chris Vagasky, meteorologist and research program manager at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Audacy last week that “cutting staffing, cutting funding, cutting the tools to issue really good forecasts makes us concerned that the forecasts may not be as accurate this year.”
Apart from the impact of reduced air pollution, there are other factors at play leading experts to predict a very active hurricane season. According to the NOAA, those include continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon. That monsoon is actually a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.
“The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds,” the NOAA explained. “The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.”
Overall, Graham said that NOAA’s 2025 hurricane season outlook “is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens.”