Although the week kicked off with economic panic when there was a huge selloff of stocks Monday, the market shock may actually indicate some happy news for American consumers this fall.
“The fact of the matter is, the Fed should be ready to start cutting rates,” said Robert S. Kaplan, vice chairman at Goldman Sachs and former CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in an interview this week with KRLD.
Inflation, a lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, has continued to remain high in the U.S. in recent years and the Federal Reserve Bank has attempted to tame it with interest rate hikes to slow spending. Those rate hikes make it more expensive to borrow money and put pressure on consumers. In 2022 and 2023, the Fed raised rates 11 times, according to the Motley Fool. There have not been further rate hikes this year, but there haven’t been decreases either.
As of July 31, the Fed benchmark interest rates stood at 5.25% to 5.5%, while inflation for the 12-month period ending in June was at 3%. Late last month, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee decided again to keep rates steady and said it was still waiting to see clearer signs that the U.S. was heading towards 2% inflation. However, some have indicated that Fed waited too long to cut rates – and that its reluctance played a part in the market chaos this week, KRLD business analyst David Johnson explained.
Trouble started in Asia, then continued in European and U.S. markets. The Dow Jones Average dropped more than 1,000 points and the S&P 500 saw its worst day in two years.
“It’s the perfect storm when it comes to these markets,” explained Kriti Gupta, markets correspondent for Bloomberg News in an interview with Audacy station KNX. “And you really look globally and you can find a problem or something to be worried about wherever you look. So, start over in Asia, which is really where some of the carnage in the last 24 hours really started, where you are looking at a Japanese economy that is kind of struggling when it comes to affordability for its everyday citizens.”
CBS News reported that “signs the U.S. economy is slowing and concerns that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut interest rates,” also sparked concerns. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report showing that unemployment in the U.S. had edged up.
Still, Kaplan said we shouldn’t be too worried.
“If it turns out that they would have preferred to move in July, they’ll just do more in September and November,” he said.
At the same time, he acknowledged the pressure of inflation and interest rate hikes on many American consumers.
“I’ve been talking about the disconnect a little bit between Wall Street, Main Street. There are 60 million consumers out there that make $50,000 a year in their jobs that cannot make ends meet,” Kaplan said. “And while inflation is gradually heading toward 2%, average inflation over the last four years is more like 4.5% for them, and they’re getting suffocated by it. On the other hand, there… are pockets of consumers that are very strong. If you have financial assets, [if] you have a fixed rate mortgage. And I think any company that deals with the low moderate-income consumer has been seeing much more discretion, stretching the dollar.”
Next Wednesday the BLS is expected to release the Consumer Price Index report for July, revealing whether or not inflation increased, decreased or stayed flat.
Paul Christopher, the Head of Global Investment Strategy for Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told Audacy station WBBM that CPI report and the July labor report will help us figure out if the jittery actions of the market this week were warranted.
“There’s evidence that the economy’s been slowing, but there’s really not any evidence that we’re in a recession or about to start a recession,” he said. “What it looks like to us is that just if well, if you take the consumer, for example, consumers have been gradually running out of money.”
This might not sound great, but Kaplan explained how it might be.
“We need some cooling in the economy,” he said. “We need rates to cool down. And so, I actually think some of this weakness is not a bad thing. It’s a good thing.”
CBS News reported Tuesday that the U.S. markets opened higher and that financial markets had regained their footing after the Monday selloff. The Dow Jones rose 282 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.4%. Even so, it said the Monday scare could finally usher in interest rate cuts this year – and possibly more than previously expected.