Even as parts of the Northern U.S. remain blanketed in sweltering temperatures, there are signs that fall is just around the corner. Halloween decorations creeping onto store shelves, back-to-school lists, and for some most important of all: the return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte at Starbucks.
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While some might have considered the “PSL” to be a passing trend, 22 successful seasons with the beverage have cemented it as an autumnal tradition. It returns later this month, and WBBM’s Noon Business Hour spoke with R.J. Hottovy, Head of Analytical Research at Palo Alto-based foot traffic analysis firm Placer AI to discuss its continuing impact.
“It does kind of sneak up on you, doesn’t it?” said Hottovy of the impending PSL season.
He noted that it has been the company’s most successful seasonal beverage over the years, something that bears out in Placer AI’s traffic data.
“Typically, there is a pretty big pickup, particularly around the launch, which is gonna be on Aug. 26 this year,” Hottovy said. “They moved it back from a Thursday launch to a Tuesday launch last year, and I think it was pretty successful for them.”
According to Starbucks, it sold hundreds of millions of PSLs during the first two decades of offering the drink. Unlike many beverages at the chain – think Caramel Macchiatos and Vanilla Lattes – the PSL benefits from its rarity, since it is only available during late summer and fall.
“It does feel a little bit early, but at the same time, it’s a point in the retail calendar where there aren’t other product launches they’re competing with,” Hottovy explained about the not-quite-fall launch of the drink. “I’ve already seen back-to-school shopping. So that’s a natural attachment with it.”
Indeed, Walmart ads featuring Walton Goggins have already kicked off the back-to-school shopping season, and many in the U.S. will be back in classrooms around the time the PSL makes its 2025 comeback. Getting a morning pumpkin spice fix might make returning to school a bit sweeter.
Over the years, the PSL’s influence has also grown beyond Starbucks.
“Obviously, as we’ve seen in past years, it’s kind of spawned a lot of competitors,” Hottovy said. “A lot of the other coffee chains have introduced similar products. And really, it’s revolutionized a lot of things in the grocery aisle, too. We see a lot of competing products and a lot of pumpkin spice and some more fall-themed products being launched, just because there really is an emotional attachment with it.”
Even though pumpkin spice has its share of haters, Hottovy said it doesn’t seem to be going anywhere (other than its regular hibernation between seasons) anytime soon.
“I do... think that this is kind is of central to the calendar for Starbucks and other coffee chains. And obviously, we’ve been seeing other players can replicate it as well,” Hottovy said.
He added that its “core audience” comes out in force each year to get their PSLs, while the excitement of the season also expands brand awareness. For weeks after the launch, Placer AI sees a lot of repeat visits.
This year, PSL season will come with the return of the Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew, Iced Pumpkin Cream Chai, and Pecan Crunch Oatmilk Latte. Starbucks is also launching the Pecan Oatmilk Cortado and new Italian Sausage Egg Bites during the Aug. 26 PSL launch.