The 2023 college football regular season has concluded, and this weekend we'll see who wins their conference and who locks up their spot in the final
4-team College Football Playoff. I've got predictions for every game below!
Pac-12 Championship Game: #3 Washington vs. #5 Oregon
When & Where: Friday, Dec 1st at 7 PM CT on ABC
What’s At Stake: A CFP trip and perhaps a Heisman for the winning QB
Matchup To Watch: Washington CB Jabbar Muhammad vs Oregon WR Troy Franklin
The Lowdown: The Pac-12 as we know it comes to an end on Friday night with two of the best teams the conference has ever fielded squaring off. Washington beat Oregon in October in an absolute classic, but the teams have gone in very different directions since that Huskies win. Oregon won their final six games by an average of 26 points, while Washington struggled with Pac-12 bottom feeders like Arizona State and Stanford. But the Huskies did win every game they’ve played, thanks to a Heisman-worthy season from QB Michael Penix Jr. and his cavalcade of future NFL receivers like Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. Oregon QB Bo Nix is no slouch himself, completing almost 80% of his passes with 37 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. Expect this one to go down to the wire, with the winner likely ensuring themselves the 3-seed in this year's CFP. I've been high on Washington all season so I'm riding with my gut that they'll walk away with the win.
My Prediction: Washington 41, Oregon 38
Big 12 Championship Game: #7 Texas vs. #18 Oklahoma State
When & Where: Saturday, Dec 2nd at 11 AM CT on ABC
What’s At Stake: A potential CFP trip for UT, a 2nd ever Big 12 title for Oklahoma State
Matchup To Watch: OSU RB Ollie Gordon vs UT DT T’Vondre Sweat
The Lowdown: The meme has become reality: Texas is back. Steve Sarkisian has the Longhorns on the cusp of their first Big 12 title in 14 years thanks to an efficient offense and a suffocating defensive line. Standing in their way is Oklahoma State, who has looked very poor in their losses but won the games they needed to make it to Arlington. The Pokes’ chances rest on Big 12 OPOY Ollie Gordon, who’s evoked comparisons to OSU legend Barry Sanders with his late season excellence. But the Longhorns are a far more talented team, and I expect Texas to win this game by multiple scores. Should Texas win and Florida State lose later Saturday, the Longhorns would be in prime position to make their first ever CFP appearance.
My Prediction: Texas 38, Oklahoma State 21
SEC Championship Game: #1 Georgia vs. #8 Alabama
When & Where: Saturday, Dec 2nd at 3 PM CT on CBS
What’s At Stake: A CFP trip and 30th straight win for UGA, a potential CFP trip for Bama
Matchup To Watch: Alabama QB Jalen Milroe vs the Georgia defense
The Lowdown: After all the early season questions regarding both SEC powerhouses, we end up with a familiar matchup in the SEC title game. Georgia is riding a 29-game winning streak despite losing a ton of talent to the NFL. Defensive players like S Malaki Starks and DE Mykel Williams have stepped up in a big way, and having TE Brock Bowers makes life easy for UGA's offense. They’ll have their hands full with Bama QB Jalen Milroe, who can be one of CFB’s best players when he limits his mistakes. Just look at last week’s “gravedigger” that sunk Auburn. Alabama overcame a loss to Texas and a near disaster vs USF to finish undefeated in SEC play. If they win, we’ll have the chaos many fans have craved this season. But Georgia is the new unbeatable machine, and they’ll pull away late to lock up the CFP's #1 seed.
My Prediction: Georgia 35, Alabama 31
Big Ten Championship Game: #2 Michigan vs. #16 Iowa
When & Where: Saturday, Dec 2nd at 7 PM CT on FOX
What’s At Stake: A third straight Big Ten crown & CFP trip for Michigan, an improbable conference crown for Iowa
Matchup To Watch: Iowa P Tory Taylor vs Michigan's return team
The Lowdown: Much of the attention towards Michigan this season has been for off-the-field reasons (and for good reason), but the on-field product has been nothing short of incredible. QB JJ McCarthy had his best season yet, while their RB tandem of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards powered the offense. Their defense never allowed more than 24 points, rarely letting teams run plays in their red zone. This is a complete team top to bottom, and they’ll be getting coach Jim Harbaugh back from his second suspension of the season. The Hawkeyes were the team for sickos in 2023, somehow winning 10 games while averaging 18 points a game and punting way more often more than scoring. Their defense is very good even without injured star CB Cooper DeJean, but it won’t be enough to hold Michigan back from a third straight Big Ten title and CFP appearance.
My Prediction: Michigan 35, Iowa 13
ACC Championship Game: #4 Florida State vs. #14 Louisville
When & Where: Saturday, Dec 2nd at 7 PM CT on ABC
What’s At Stake: A trip to the CFP for FSU, an 11-win season for L’ville
Matchup To Watch: UL RB Jawhar Jordan vs FSU DE Jared Verse and the rest of the defensive line
The Lowdown: Is Florida State a Playoff-worthy team without injured QB Jordan Travis? A 13-0 record would still say so to me. FSU might have the advantage at the top of each position vs Louisville in this game. WRs Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman are among the best in the country, and DE Jared Verse could be a top-15 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. It’s still a very good team, but let’s not discount the Cardinals here. RB Jawhar Jordan is one of the most underrated backs in the country, and WR Jamari Thrash, DE Ashton Gillotte and QB Jack Plummer were All-ACC selections. Louisville is pretty much guaranteed a trip to the Orange Bowl win or lose, but they'd sure like do go there as ACC Champions. The lack of Travis will keep this game closer than FSU would like, but backup QB Tate Rodemaker will do just enough for FSU to eke out a sloppy win and their first CFP appearance since the inaugural event in 2014.
My Prediction: Florida State 21, Louisville 19
Conference USA Championship Game: #24 Liberty vs. New Mexico State
When & Where: Friday, Dec 1st at 6 PM CT on CBS Sports Network
What’s At Stake: An undefeated season and NY6 bid for Liberty, the first 11-win season in 63 years for New Mexico State
The Lowdown: The rugged landscape of being an FBS independent must have prepared both of these teams for conference play. Each team is in their first season in C-USA, and all they did was go 15-1 in conference play. That lone loss was a Liberty win over New Mexico State back in September, and I’m expecting the same result in the rematch. With a win, Liberty has an outside shot at playing in getting the Group of 5's New Year’s 6 bowl bid. They'd need Tulane to lose and to be ranked higher than SMU or Toledo in the final CFP committee poll on Sunday.
My Prediction: Liberty 33, New Mexico State 14
AAC Championship Game: #22 Tulane vs. SMU
When & Where: Saturday, Dec 2nd at 3 PM CT on ABC
What’s At Stake: A trip to a New Year’s 6 bowl for both squads
The Lowdown: Two teams with NY6 aspirations meet in New Orleans on Saturday. Tulane’s 11-1 record is even better than their regular season record from last year when they won the Cotton Bowl, but they’ve been involved in lots of close games. SMU actually scored more points and allowed less points on the season, but they lost QB Preston Stone in their regular season finale. Despite losing their star signal caller, the team is loaded by Group of 5 standards, so give me the Mustangs to win the AAC crown in their final season before departing for the ACC. But will that be enough for the CFP committee to send SMU to a New Year's 6 bowl? We'll have to wait and see.
My Prediction: SMU 29, Tulane 24
MAC Championship Game: Toledo vs. Miami (OH)
When & Where: Saturday, Dec 2nd at 11 AM CT on ESPN
What’s At Stake: Back to back MAC titles for Toledo, a conference championship for Miami (OH)
The Lowdown: The MAC announced it’s doing away with divisions in 2024 and beyond, so enjoy this final year of MAC East vs. MAC West in the MAC Championship Game. Toledo guns for back to back conference titles, while Miami (OH) is looking for their first since 2019. This is a coin flip game with Toledo having already eked out a 21-17 win over the Redhawks back in October. But Toledo is the healthier team at the moment, so I’ll take the Rockets in this one.
My Prediction: Toledo 24, Miami (OH) 20
Mountain West Championship Game: UNLV vs. Boise State
When & Where: Saturday, Dec 2nd at 2 PM CT on FOX
What’s At Stake: UNLV’s first 10-win season in 40 years, a conference crown without a head coach for Boise State
The Lowdown: It came down to a computer formula, but 7-5, coachless Boise State gets a chance to play for a conference championship. They’ll travel to Las Vegas to face a surprising UNLV squad under first year head coach Barry Odom. The last two road teams in the MWC title game have come away with the win, but that streak will end this year. UNLV will officially hit 10 wins for the first time since 1984, when their 11-2 team had to forfeit all victories due to ineligible players on the roster.
My Prediction: UNLV 37, Boise State 27
Sun Belt Championship Game: Troy vs. Appalachian State
When & Where: Saturday, Dec 2nd at 3 PM CT on ESPN
What’s At Stake: A 2nd straight SBC title for Troy, the first SBC crown for App State since 2019
The Lowdown: Thanks to dumb NCAA rules, 11-1 James Madison can’t participate in this game. That opened the door for App State to sneak in for a chance at the Sun Belt title, and with QB Joey Aguilar accounting for 35 TDs on the season, they’ve got a shot. But so does Troy, who seeks back-to-back titles with a defense that allowed just 13 points per game in Sun Belt play. Troy loves to turn the ball over though, and I think a late turnover will be the difference for App State to win this game.
My Prediction: App State 31, Troy 30
